Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[wxsniss]

We've been calling for the NW trend and a GFS cave for days now, despite skepticism.

The OTS tracks simply did not make sense with the position/strength of vorticity and trough.

Never wavered from 3-6/4-8 since weekend, and there is still potential for more as I think that lead convection is still mucking up the low positioning and best conveyor mechanics on guidance.

[OceanStWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think it’s done yet either. Model guidance is trying to rip this closer to the vortmax. It still tries to escape east a bit on some of these runs even though they are a lot better. 

We're right on track for another bump or two NW followed by the messenger shuffle late to leave us right about where we are now.

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Here's my new map. 

I see that  poking in from RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meditation though isn’t wearing a brown robe and remaining still for 2hrs in a seated position. I do it while driving, in a meeting, in the morning while eating breakfast. It’s become part of my daily routine. But yea, mindfulness can be enhanced in a variety of ways not just meditation. It’s good to see folks get after it. 
 

One more earlier tick with h7 closing off and ema tickles a foot.

I have issues with impulsive control and attention span after years of booze and mental health issues, so in my mind, anything that gets me to focus and block out the noise for a protracted duration of time is a mindfulness exercise for me..focusing on not killing myself squatting well over 300lbs, and spending hours on end researching and writing winter outlooks does that for me.

[Henry's Weather]

All the nonsense aside, it'll be so exciting to see the first substantial snow of the year

[JC-CT]

just got a sneak peek at the 6z GFS run. it's not good.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not until it stops.

I mean, I hope it continues until this is riding over SE MA as nature intended, but we'll see.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We're right on track for another bump or two NW followed by the messenger shuffle late to leave us right about where we are now.

I see that  poking in from RI.

Wouldn't take much to do it with some nice frontogenesis and even a bit of a MAUL. Relatively deep DGZ. When someone gets 0.6" of liquid and 15:1 kinda rates...

[CoastalWx]

Now let’s get all some love. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I mean, I hope it continues until this is riding over SE MA as nature intended, but we'll see.

It should still have some west tics left though, We've cleared up a couple issues that was sending this east, The s/w rounding the base was weaker  yesterday and earlier today on some models but that's amped up on 18z runs and now at 0z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Not sure what he was thinking in the first place lol

The "you can always adjust up" rule, of course.

[JC-CT]

Somebody tell me about the upgrades the CMC made this year...

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

All the nonsense aside, it'll be so exciting to see the first substantial snow of the year

I would use the word "significant" vs "substantial" but yeah, I'm with you on that statement.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wouldn't take much to do it with some nice frontogenesis and even a bit of a MAUL. Relatively deep DGZ. When someone gets 0.6" of liquid and 15:1 kinda rates...

Clicking around some GFS soundings there are decent lapse rates over the interior just above the DGZ, even absent a MAUL. It would take much to really make the most of that.

[IowaStorm05]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have issues with impulsive control and attention span after years of booze and mental health issues, so in my mind, anything that gets me to focus and block out the noise for a protracted duration of time is a mindfulness exercise for me..focusing on not killing myself squatting well over 300lbs, and spending hours on end researching and writing winter outlooks does that for me.

That’s the ticket.

Writing long informative screeds online 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ant melted earlier…and it worked. Sad there are innocent people in jail today though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s the ticket.

Writing long informative screeds online 

Combine a an innate interest in winter weather with OCD and a yearning for mindfulness and you get 33 page winter outlooks.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Somebody tell me about the upgrades the CMC made this year...

Said no one ever, I don't even consider it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Clicking around some GFS soundings there are decent lapse rates over the interior just above the DGZ, even absent a MAUL. It would take much to really make the most of that.

Talk dirty...filthy, rotten even...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Somebody tell me about the upgrades the CMC made this year...

Ya pretty far east

[DavisStraight]

Harvey's got me at 4-8, pretty much what Kevin has been saying.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Harvey's got me at 4-8, pretty much what Kevin has been saying.

You are in a pretty nice spot imho.  Warning Snows.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You needed to just refresh yourself with some training

 

 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are in a pretty nice spot imho.  Warning Snows.

I think Scott's in a good spot for this one.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM def a bit east of 12z. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Harvey's got me at 4-8, pretty much what Kevin has been saying.

That’s enough. He’ll have a sore back from repeatedly patting himself tomorrow. 

[DavisStraight]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s enough. He’ll have a sore back from repeatedly patting himself tomorrow. 

When he's right he's right.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cmc looks like garbage 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc looks like garbage 

Tossed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

When he's right he's right.

And when he’s wrong, he still thinks he’s right.

[DavisStraight]

I'll probably get 4 or 5 but that's enough to use my new snowblower