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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


Typhoon Tip
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Oh... I know ( or 'think' I do - ) what happened.

The American model products don't correct ( don't think nearly to the scale or degree that the foreign clusters do ) for input garbage.  This smacks pretty loudly as the GEFs 'AI' gulping in back-wash initialization - it's sacked the whole ensemble mean too deeply and pervasively for me to believe this was organic.

I bet the Euro negated faulty inputs. 

That said, I do think there is going to be some uncertainty wrt to the SPV spit over the NE Pac, and how much gets inserted downs stream. And if/should the ridge bulge in the back side, that ups the ante -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh... I know ( or 'think' I do - ) what happened.

The American model products don't correct ( don't think nearly to the scale or degree that the foreign clusters do ) for input garbage.  This smacks pretty loudly as the GEFs 'AI' gulping in back initialization - it's sacked the whole ensemble mean too deeply and pervasively for me to believe this was organic.

I bet the Euro negated faulty inputs. 

That said, I do think there is going to be some uncertainty wrt to the SPV spit over the NE Pac, and how much gets inserted downs stream. And if/should the ridge bulge in the back side, that ups the ante -

So are we saying that the recently updated GFS model is still garbage, lol?

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7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

So are we saying that the recently updated GFS model is still garbage, lol?

Ha!   ... uh, I dunno 'bout that.

It's more like the population of the initialization grid.  There used to exist this "model diagnostic discussion," back when it was carried under the NCEP banner.  But then it became WPC ... etc, and I don't think it's covered there?  But they would flag this in discussion and surmise how it may/or not have effected the model processing.

Now would be a good time for that -

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!   ... uh, I dunno 'bout that.

It's more like the population of the initialization grid.  There used to exist this "model diagnostic discussion," back when it was carried under the NCEP banner.  But then it became WPC ... etc, and I don't think it's covered there?  But they would flag this in discussion and surmise how it may/or not have effected the model processing.

Now would be a good time for that -

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

I think there’s too much distance between the events.   I think the idea of a hugger is more viable than ots at this point.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I think there’s too much distance between the events.   I think the idea of a hugger is more viable than it’s at this point.

Without any blocking or something to shunt it out to see one would think so. But panics driven by shifts of models five days out are fairly common even with someone as old as me.

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