Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I assume you think this keeps coming nw and every single model is wrong?

[George001]

Only has like 4-6 inches here but that euro run is closer to a bigger hit. Get those .7s and .8s for QPF farther west and this becomes a big storm really quickly. I do think the models are underestimating the westward extent of the QPF due to feedback issues and chasing convection.  Also with ratios (I read that the snow growth profile was expected to be really good with this event, so 12:1 or better is likely), it’s realistic that we see a widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16 regardless of what the snow maps currently say.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ah shit you’re right.  Didn’t realize it was raining down there.  My bad for sure.  I’ll delete other post.  Here’s the snow storm.

 

Verbatim… easily a 6-10 inch snowstorm eastern ma 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ah shit you’re right.  Didn’t realize it was raining down there.  My bad for sure.  I’ll delete other post.  Here’s the snow storm.

 

The snow clown will just have the snow for the 7th i believe seeing everyone saw rain.

[dryslot]

Yes, Here's 24 hr totals, 10:1.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Verbatim… easily a 6-10 inch snowstorm eastern ma 

Ots. Wonder if there will be any precip.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ots. Wonder if there will be any precip.

So mean…

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ots. Wonder if there will be any precip.

He should be punished, I bet he still found some meh in that run.

[PhineasC]

Euro has that little precip bump into the Eastern Whites that shows up with coastals. Hope that keeps amping up. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

TB12 deserving all the praise trolling over his posts 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

He should be punished, I bet he still found some meh in that run.

You look good on that run.  I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason.  That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE.  Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You look good on that run.  I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason.  That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE.  Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.

How much for Stowe? 

[tavwtby]

which station does the whole SNE snow map, ALY and OKX only do their forecast areas and I'm having issues loading it, if someone can throw that up would appreciate it

edit I got it to load

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Euro has that little precip bump into the Eastern Whites that shows up with coastals. Hope that keeps amping up. 

Wonder if there is some orographic enhancement causing that.  

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much for Stowe? 

1-3".  Some upslope snow showers.  Still snow on the trees has kept it wintry, high of 32F today helped.  Much better than the single digits and below zero cold of recent days.  We rely on some weak moisture and NW flow for this system on the backside.  Ratios likely help as it's cold aloft.  Maybe J.Spin and favored calm fluffer locations pull 4"?

[Greg]

54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Here's 24 hr totals, 10:1.

That's actually off a little bit based upon the LE map we just saw if you scroll above. Go out to about 70 hours then do the 24-Hour total for snow, the map will match up better. Can't have 4.4" of snow in Lowell/Lawrence with a 10-1 ratio and 0.5" LE unless the temperature is above 32F based on that output.

[CT Rain]

Pretty sizable jump NW on the EPS.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump NW on the EPS.

Pump em up 

 

[MuddyWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump NW on the EPS.

12z vs 18z

[tavwtby]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump NW on the EPS.

let's keep em coming, I'd like more than a couple inches

[PhineasC]

Just need 2 more shifts like the Euro did.

[Damage In Tolland]

We warned em and tried and tried and tried to tell em to up em .  They Helen Kellered and now they can suddenly see and hear 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We warned em and tried and tried and tried to tell em to up em .  They Helen Kellered and now they can suddenly see and hear 

The NAM and GFS are probably about to go east again...

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The NAM and GFS are probably about to go east again...

I’ll be asleep . They can do whatever they need to do . I’ll see them in the morning 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You look good on that run.  I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason.  That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE.  Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.

I liked it as soon as i saw more ridging out ahead when it was getting to NE, Just that last minute curl back taking that low over the tip of NS instead of east of it makes a big difference here, I'm very track sensitive sitting back at lat 44 so i need as much longtitude i can get before it scoots ENE or NNE

[JC-CT]

[IowaStorm05]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll be asleep . They can do whatever they need to do . I’ll see them in the morning 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll be asleep . They can do whatever they need to do . I’ll see them in the morning 

We be rippin' back some Oh-J Citra

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We be rippin' back some Oh-J Citra

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's a very interesting pattern.  Off and on.  Interesting if there are different initializations or parameters in place between certain runs.