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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It's like old times.  GFS had it and lost it way out to sea or no storm, the rest of the models have variations of a big hit for humans in New England.   Euro has been reasonably steady with minor variations.  Let's see if it can stay that way.  Pattern change FINALLY en route.

All we need is a faulty data ingest 24 hours in advance and have the NWS tell us to ignore all the models.  Then it will truly be a winter of yore.

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's more than then just the GFS operational, tho -   as was just sneaky mentioned in a brief sentence now scrolled ... the entire ensemble mean of the GEFs has lost this - all but small vestiges.  Essentially ... gone.

hmm ... 

Hopefully either it, or the Euro's EPS et al, will be 100% correct. 

That way we get to chide and humiliate one or the other for being uniquely abysmal -

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

5 days out…don’t trust anything good or bad at this stage. 

Could be the ‘old lose it only to bring it back’ re-run.  The Euro and GFS operational have done that before big ones many times.  Some 18z model run will pick it back up, right?  We can hope...we also hope the long range isn't just model shite vapors as they have been so far.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Allsnow said:

I’m just referring to the overall look of things next week. It probably wouldn’t be until the ridge pulls back after the 15th for more threats. 

CD20BE52-D759-44EF-B4BB-CE08BF3399B8.png

That’s fine. Maybe a clipper and

progressive redeveloper? I don’t see an issue.  I’m not looking for a KU pattern. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Update:

Short version, the super synoptic evolution supports S/W's NOT (as much) being mechanically neutered ( negatively interfered ...) as they come eastward across the country.  There is contention among the model types, and within there own continuity/handling therein, as to what and how much will actually be there.   Critical time intervals to know that answer appears about 36 hours from now ( estimating - )

More details ... The S/W mechanics responsible for what was D7, now ... D5.25, originates from a rather usual source. 

image.png.7296dd7801e97ae6b9190d85cc42a525.png

This is not the typical trace-back to the date line, or delivery through the EPO domain ...etc, where it can be observed in WV channels and assessed over longer, real-time analysis, then balance against model performance/ initialization issues ... Being able to do that will service confidence or doubt.  Can't do this with this guy... It's coming from that SPV split, as it appears to bifurcate as seen above.  The GFS has been flip flopping as to how much then retrogrades west under Alaska, vs how much injects over N/A.  More goes west, less goes east... vice versa, = storm or no storm.

The PNA rise is still in tact in the various guidance ens means. In fact, it was well discerned yesterday... and that has continued if anything even more so on the 00z.  Numerical interpretation of the GEFs mean would suggest both this system, and a one out mid month ( ...fuzzy 12th+) are on the table, due to that correction, and then modulation out in time...etc.  That said, the interesting aspect is that now model in either the Euro/EPS or GEF members ..et al, really look Archembaultian about this/ .. as in a bona fide correction event.   Believe me...that would make this more confident as the total scaffolding would be face smackingly clear.  "As is," this appears to be a maintenance trough translation - basically normal periodicity.  But, the PNA --> PNAP super synoptic considerations appear to to be more in constructive interference for just about anything for a change.  Including this, and that's why we're having discussions.

That said, I'm not sure the western ridge won't respond more and show some 72 hour lead adjustments that increase the y-coordinate of the arc of the ridge.  It may not ... but, this is a PNA pattern change is numerically impressive...going from -2 to + .5, or even +1 SD is huge amount of implicit alteration in the mass-field distribution, and it is doing so quickly in both the EPS/GEFs.  The western ridge could certainly expand more so, as the numerology of this would allow room for that. 

image.png.15028183ab681efcefc13dc0037c381d.png

I'm not sure why we have to have this flat ridge aspect to it.  It may.... "maybe" be related to the fact that there is a very modest positive bias to the outlook curve, wrt to the verification curve.

  image.png.c6a5a84a79fcd72da9e077e8906ced1d.png

pure speculation though... That's probably nit -picking and irrelevant given to the nature of that rise - it would be unlikely to error that much.

 

 

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted

the evolution on the Euro is beautiful, with a clearly defined baroclinic zone set up by the previous system with high pressure building in fron the west, while a SW is funneled right to where it needs to be to snow. Synoptically textbook significant/low end major event.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nice hit on euro. 

I'm really curious what is causing the flip flops in the GFS ...when comparatively, the Euro has been considerably more stable.  Aren't we giving them the N/A input/grid.  Lol.

The GFS was competitive this season ( at least ..) but if this thing goes on to be a moderate or even low end major storm success, this is going to be a pretty significant indictment of the GFS' middle range forecast performance...

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

ggem is good but only for far interior, really. CP even inland is torched

I am a very very cheerful optimistic person but....

Tomorrow will miss JUST to the south.

This storm will Trend to be good for only ski county.

Trough too far east in LR and we are cold and dry.

Trough breaks down and we torch.

But I am keeping positive outlook.

;)

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