moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's like old times. GFS had it and lost it way out to sea or no storm, the rest of the models have variations of a big hit for humans in New England. Euro has been reasonably steady with minor variations. Let's see if it can stay that way. Pattern change FINALLY en route. All we need is a faulty data ingest 24 hours in advance and have the NWS tell us to ignore all the models. Then it will truly be a winter of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's more than then just the GFS operational, tho - as was just sneaky mentioned in a brief sentence now scrolled ... the entire ensemble mean of the GEFs has lost this - all but small vestiges. Essentially ... gone. hmm ... Hopefully either it, or the Euro's EPS et al, will be 100% correct. That way we get to chide and humiliate one or the other for being uniquely abysmal - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: ? Looks like we might be too far into the trough next week. The ridge is way to Far East imo 5 days out…don’t trust anything good or bad at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We probably should wait until weds..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: All we need is a faulty data ingest 24 hours in advance and have the NWS tell us to ignore all the models. Then it will truly be a winter of yore. Yup…lol Dec of 10 esque… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: 5 days out…don’t trust anything good or bad at this stage. Could be the ‘old lose it only to bring it back’ re-run. The Euro and GFS operational have done that before big ones many times. Some 18z model run will pick it back up, right? We can hope...we also hope the long range isn't just model shite vapors as they have been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup…lol Dec of 10 esque… Oh yeah...convective feedback. Wasn't that the boxing day-is-a-miarage theory sold on us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uh Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Oh yeah...convective feedback. Wasn't that the boxing day-is-a-miarage theory sold on us? Yes sir. They go ignore the GFS..it ingested bad data, when it brought the Boxing Day storm back to life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lots of weenies all in on this. Can feel the angst. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 5 days out…don’t trust anything good or bad at this stage. I’m just referring to the overall look of things next week. It probably wouldn’t be until the ridge pulls back after the 15th for more threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: I’m just referring to the overall look of things next week. It probably wouldn’t be until the ridge pulls back after the 15th for more threats. That’s fine. Maybe a clipper and progressive redeveloper? I don’t see an issue. I’m not looking for a KU pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 And Allsnow is right that when it retros a bit, verbatim it’s a stormy look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya that looks pretty nice…. the isobars suggest that should come nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Update: Short version, the super synoptic evolution supports S/W's NOT (as much) being mechanically neutered ( negatively interfered ...) as they come eastward across the country. There is contention among the model types, and within there own continuity/handling therein, as to what and how much will actually be there. Critical time intervals to know that answer appears about 36 hours from now ( estimating - ) More details ... The S/W mechanics responsible for what was D7, now ... D5.25, originates from a rather usual source. This is not the typical trace-back to the date line, or delivery through the EPO domain ...etc, where it can be observed in WV channels and assessed over longer, real-time analysis, then balance against model performance/ initialization issues ... Being able to do that will service confidence or doubt. Can't do this with this guy... It's coming from that SPV split, as it appears to bifurcate as seen above. The GFS has been flip flopping as to how much then retrogrades west under Alaska, vs how much injects over N/A. More goes west, less goes east... vice versa, = storm or no storm. The PNA rise is still in tact in the various guidance ens means. In fact, it was well discerned yesterday... and that has continued if anything even more so on the 00z. Numerical interpretation of the GEFs mean would suggest both this system, and a one out mid month ( ...fuzzy 12th+) are on the table, due to that correction, and then modulation out in time...etc. That said, the interesting aspect is that now model in either the Euro/EPS or GEF members ..et al, really look Archembaultian about this/ .. as in a bona fide correction event. Believe me...that would make this more confident as the total scaffolding would be face smackingly clear. "As is," this appears to be a maintenance trough translation - basically normal periodicity. But, the PNA --> PNAP super synoptic considerations appear to to be more in constructive interference for just about anything for a change. Including this, and that's why we're having discussions. That said, I'm not sure the western ridge won't respond more and show some 72 hour lead adjustments that increase the y-coordinate of the arc of the ridge. It may not ... but, this is a PNA pattern change is numerically impressive...going from -2 to + .5, or even +1 SD is huge amount of implicit alteration in the mass-field distribution, and it is doing so quickly in both the EPS/GEFs. The western ridge could certainly expand more so, as the numerology of this would allow room for that. I'm not sure why we have to have this flat ridge aspect to it. It may.... "maybe" be related to the fact that there is a very modest positive bias to the outlook curve, wrt to the verification curve. pure speculation though... That's probably nit -picking and irrelevant given to the nature of that rise - it would be unlikely to error that much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Big hit on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro/CMC/uncle are nice hits. Toss then outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 That’s a nice hit on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lock that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 the evolution on the Euro is beautiful, with a clearly defined baroclinic zone set up by the previous system with high pressure building in fron the west, while a SW is funneled right to where it needs to be to snow. Synoptically textbook significant/low end major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s a nice hit on euro. Close for comfort for us coasties but trended better from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sorry America modeler bangers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ggem is good but only for far interior, really. CP even inland is torched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 in and up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s a nice hit on euro. I'm really curious what is causing the flip flops in the GFS ...when comparatively, the Euro has been considerably more stable. Aren't we giving them the N/A input/grid. Lol. The GFS was competitive this season ( at least ..) but if this thing goes on to be a moderate or even low end major storm success, this is going to be a pretty significant indictment of the GFS' middle range forecast performance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah, To bad its not weds, This would be a nice lock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: ggem is good but only for far interior, really. CP even inland is torched I am a very very cheerful optimistic person but.... Tomorrow will miss JUST to the south. This storm will Trend to be good for only ski county. Trough too far east in LR and we are cold and dry. Trough breaks down and we torch. But I am keeping positive outlook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro solution would make many happy except far SE areas and far NW areas. Spreads the wealth decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro solution would make many happy except far SE areas and far NW areas. Spreads the wealth decently. Far SE areas get warning snows tomorrow according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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