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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:44 AM, weathafella said:

So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

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This is a now cast

models imo have demonstrated many times that they struggle mightily when there are two dual competing lows . I think there are situations they just can’t figure it out well .

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:44 AM, weathafella said:
So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

Yep, though I’d weigh mesos increasingly inside 24hrs.

RGEM and GFS held.
NAM RAP HRRR increasingly favor the eastern low.

GFS also did shift in favor of eastern low, but end result was same as 18z.

I’d do more upstream real-time analysis of that eastern low but I’m mobile.
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The Graupler

The Graupler

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is a now cast

models imo have demonstrated many times that they struggle mightily when there are two dual competing lows . I think there are situations they just can’t figure it out well .

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Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:55 AM, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

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This is my first time doing this so Im not sure this is correct but…

 

beer?

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:55 AM, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

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Is this some obscure way of using the I-Ching to predict weather?   I like it.

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2022 at 3:55 AM, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

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He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast. 

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