Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

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Yup..it’s overkill.  Gotta filter it out. Use common sense and real meteorology to lead the way. Instead of falling prey to the windshield wiper affect as many do. 

[George001]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:56 AM, NeonPeon said:

What do you mean we don't know whether it'll be real. You think the satellite is doing performance art? Is it a metaphor?

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Ok I probably shouldn’t have said the eastern low won’t be real at all, its there but weaker then expected, satellite looks better than the models do. There is still a chance that the western low will take over and absorb the eastern low.

[PhineasC]

"It's nowcast time!"

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:03 AM, WinterWolf said:

Yup..it’s overkill.  Gotta filter it out. Use common sense and real meteorology to lead the way. Instead of falling prey to the windshield wiper affect as many do. 

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Somebody talked about the FV3. I had forgotten all about that, and how it used to be on Pivotal because it’s gone. At least on the free version I use.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

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Analysis  paralysis sets in.

[dryslot]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:57 AM, JC-CT said:

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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Cape looked wet.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

This is when it becomes unreadable 

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Completely even Jerry fell off the boat. FV3 would be nice

. 

[dryslot]

Reading the last few pages its like doing the wave at a football game or being on a roller coaster.

[PhineasC]

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

[George001]

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:06 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Completely even Jerry fell off the boat. FV3 would be nice

. 

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He was looking at wrong map he said I think lol

[dryslot]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:07 AM, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

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Reaching deep in the bag, Must be a DGEX down there somewhere.

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:07 AM, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

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How does it look on the KMA?

[weathafella]

Also regarding the eastern low-that’s not the convection-that’s the fukking secondary!  As it climbs north is where you look for convection to the east pulling it in that direction or double barreling.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:07 AM, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

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24 hrs go meso or go home. We Messenger in here inside 24. RAP it up or pay the consequences 

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:08 AM, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

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Couldn't find any with higher totals?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve always thought too many models is a detriment. 

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I have very much enjoyed this recent era of no model being king.  It's more exciting to have an element of uncertainty and chaos.

[wxsniss]

0z RGEM looks better…

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:14 AM, wxsniss said:

0z RGEM looks better…

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Lol…better/worse/better/worse….so which is correct?  Storm starts here in a few hours or so. 

[George001]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:12 AM, kdxken said:

Couldn't find any with higher totals?

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I gotta learn how to make my own maps

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:07 AM, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

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Here's one for you.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:08 AM, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

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Take that, crumple it up, and throw it right in the trash. 12+ out of this system is lol

[PhineasC]

LOL the MOGREPS-G.

Yeah, that's one for sure.

[PhineasC]

00z RGEM was pretty nice here.

[Hoth]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:09 AM, dryslot said:

Reaching deep in the bag, Must be a DGEX down there somewhere.

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Bust it out. Papa needs a hit real bad.

[JC-CT]

Hey guys just popping in. Was wondering if anyone knows how much snow Philadelphia, PA is getting? Thanks!

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:16 AM, WinterWolf said:

Lol…better/worse/better/worse….so which is correct?  Storm starts here in a few hours or so. 

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Depends where you live, looks better where he is, not us.

[The Graupler]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:08 AM, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

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ROFLMAO,  dude you WOULD agree with this map, WHAT? LOL 

[CT Rain]

FWIW the HREF members are a bit juicier across SNE at 00z than they were at 12z. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:24 AM, DavisStraight said:

Depends where you live, looks better where he is, not us.

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I’m happy with .4-.5 qpf..that’ll yield a decent snowfall. And that’s all I want. It already canceled school for me tomorrow..so it’s all good for me.