Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

Yup..it’s overkill.  Gotta filter it out. Use common sense and real meteorology to lead the way. Instead of falling prey to the windshield wiper affect as many do. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

What do you mean we don't know whether it'll be real. You think the satellite is doing performance art? Is it a metaphor?

Ok I probably shouldn’t have said the eastern low won’t be real at all, its there but weaker then expected, satellite looks better than the models do. There is still a chance that the western low will take over and absorb the eastern low.

[PhineasC]

"It's nowcast time!"

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..it’s overkill.  Gotta filter it out. Use common sense and real meteorology to lead the way. Instead of falling prey to the windshield wiper affect as many do. 

Somebody talked about the FV3. I had forgotten all about that, and how it used to be on Pivotal because it’s gone. At least on the free version I use.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

Analysis  paralysis sets in.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Cape looked wet.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is when it becomes unreadable 

Completely even Jerry fell off the boat. FV3 would be nice

. 

[dryslot]

Reading the last few pages its like doing the wave at a football game or being on a roller coaster.

[PhineasC]

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

[George001]

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Completely even Jerry fell off the boat. FV3 would be nice

. 

He was looking at wrong map he said I think lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

Reaching deep in the bag, Must be a DGEX down there somewhere.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

How does it look on the KMA?

[weathafella]

Also regarding the eastern low-that’s not the convection-that’s the fukking secondary!  As it climbs north is where you look for convection to the east pulling it in that direction or double barreling.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

24 hrs go meso or go home. We Messenger in here inside 24. RAP it up or pay the consequences 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

Couldn't find any with higher totals?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve always thought too many models is a detriment. 

I have very much enjoyed this recent era of no model being king.  It's more exciting to have an element of uncertainty and chaos.

[wxsniss]

0z RGEM looks better…

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

0z RGEM looks better…

Lol…better/worse/better/worse….so which is correct?  Storm starts here in a few hours or so. 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Couldn't find any with higher totals?

I gotta learn how to make my own maps

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Time to bring out the fringe models. 

The SREFs must look amped. Let's bust them out!

Here's one for you.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

Take that, crumple it up, and throw it right in the trash. 12+ out of this system is lol

[PhineasC]

LOL the MOGREPS-G.

Yeah, that's one for sure.

[PhineasC]

00z RGEM was pretty nice here.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Reaching deep in the bag, Must be a DGEX down there somewhere.

Bust it out. Papa needs a hit real bad.

[JC-CT]

Hey guys just popping in. Was wondering if anyone knows how much snow Philadelphia, PA is getting? Thanks!

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…better/worse/better/worse….so which is correct?  Storm starts here in a few hours or so. 

Depends where you live, looks better where he is, not us.

[The Graupler]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

A snow map I saw on twitter, looks better than these convection chasing models that have barely .5 QPF even in eastern mass. I agree with this map.

ROFLMAO,  dude you WOULD agree with this map, WHAT? LOL 

[CT Rain]

FWIW the HREF members are a bit juicier across SNE at 00z than they were at 12z. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Depends where you live, looks better where he is, not us.

I’m happy with .4-.5 qpf..that’ll yield a decent snowfall. And that’s all I want. It already canceled school for me tomorrow..so it’s all good for me.