Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

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It strangely feels like fantasy football in a way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

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As Tip would say, the cinema and dopamine drip.

[weathafella]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

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I think that’s pretty common amongst us

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:39 AM, weathafella said:

We needed a touch of blue and we got it…lol

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I think my post had missed .1" for some people.  My bad.

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

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Kind of like Christmas. The lead-up is always better.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:42 AM, moneypitmike said:

I think my post had missed .1" for some people.  My bad.

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0.3"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

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Yea Tracking is sometimes more enjoyable, Dryslot feels the same IIRC. The science, the emotions, the shitshow in here…it’s a great way to spend time. 

[moneypitmike]

Well--past bed time.   Hopefully I'll find snowcvoer when I get up at 4:15.

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:36 AM, WhiteLawns said:

Do you think we’ll get low end of your map in the torrington area?

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Probably more than shutesbury and New Marlborough.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares at this point. Just watch the radar

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Thank you.  I’m about done with this POS! Let’s see how it plays out now. Modeling all over the place for days and days.  Ridiculous.  I’m liking the .4-.5 of precip here…that’ll yield 4-6” if that’s even true. Who knows and quite honestly I don’t care anymore.  
 

And If the GFS can’t get this right 6-8 hrs out from go time…that thing should be retired with the NAM. 
 

It’s Nowcast time…put these models to bed now. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:41 AM, kdxken said:

I'll gladly take 5 inches to smooth out the ruts on the trails. A little rain on Sunday and a hard freeze, looks like smooth wood Gathering next week.

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You go deep in woods to cut and gather?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:41 AM, weathafella said:

I think that’s pretty common amongst us

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If it sucks, then I'll just go back to sleep.

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You go deep in woods to cut and gather?

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 A mile or two.

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:41 AM, weathafella said:

Globals and euro vs rest of mesos pending 0z gfs.  I’m not staying up for the euro

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I'm in bed setting alarm little early tomorrow weenie full staff 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:45 AM, kdxken said:

 A mile or two.

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On your land? Also, Do you ever cut anything down if someone has a tree on their property they’d like removed, for money or otherwise?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:42 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea Tracking is sometimes more enjoyable, Dryslot feels the same IIRC. The science, the emotions, the shitshow in here…it’s a great way to spend time. 

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With snowstorms for me it’s like this especially , maybe just because being out in the elements is just not as enjoyable (Cold /windy ) . When I lived in Florida for a decade tracking hurricanes on a forum (storm2k) was a favorite past time but the difference was the actual storm was pretty dang awe inspiring , I like the ocean wave aspect and the winds (and warmth ) are just more fun to be out in (being reasonable w risk taking )but I’m still hooked on winter storms 

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:44 AM, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.  I’m about done with this POS! Let’s see how it plays out now. Modeling all over the place for days and days.  Ridiculous.  I’m liking the .4-.5 of precip here…that’ll yield 4-6” if that’s even true. Who knows and quite honestly I don’t care anymore.  
 

And If the GFS can’t get this right 6-8 hrs out from go time…that thing should be retired with the NAM. 
 

It’s Nowcast time…put these models to bed now. 

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LOL, I feel the same, been a roller coaster.

[JC-CT]

Rgem actually looks pretty nice. Similar to 18z but I think it probably bumped a little.

[George001]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:35 AM, Henry's Weather said:

Can we get a grip? Did people get their hearts set on 8-12?

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We still don’t know if that eastern low thing will even be real. The upside is still there, we will find out in a few hours.

[The 4 Seasons]

FV3 HI Res looks very nice much better than the last run 12z. Sure most would take that on here. 

[NeonPeon]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:51 AM, George001 said:

We still don’t know if that eastern low thing will even be real. The upside is still there, we will find out in a few hours.

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What do you mean we don't know whether it'll be real. You think the satellite is doing performance art? Is it a metaphor?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With snowstorms for me it’s like this especially , maybe just because being out in the elements is just not as enjoyable (Cold /windy ) . When I lived in Florida for a decade tracking hurricanes on a forum (storm2k) was a favorite past time but the difference was the actual storm was pretty dang awe inspiring , I like the ocean wave aspect and the winds (and warmth ) are just more fun to be out in (being reasonable w risk taking )

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I can see that for sure. I’ll always be a cold/snow weather guy though. I like being out in it and especially now that my son is a weenie. I can’t deal with wind though. I’m the first one inside and I’ll leave his little ass out there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

[MuddyWx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:51 AM, JC-CT said:

Rgem actually looks pretty nice. Similar to 18z but I think it probably bumped a little.

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Where do you find the Rgem this early? Pivotal and TT are slow with it

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:48 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On your land? Also, Do you ever cut anything down if someone has a tree on their property they’d like removed, for money or otherwise?

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Yes, on my land. I help out folks when I get the chance.

[tavwtby]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:36 AM, WhiteLawns said:

Do you think we’ll get low end of your map in the torrington area?

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perhaps my initial 1-3 was a good call for our area, got a bit excited seeing yesterday trends, but that convection offshore has been there nagging for days now, have to say don't expect more than a a couple inches, more would be great, but wishcasting leads to disappoint

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:57 AM, MuddyWx said:

Where do you find the Rgem this early? Pivotal and TT are slow with it

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https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[FXWX]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:09 AM, CT Rain said:

Seems like the convection is going to be an issue. A bit disappointing to see the RAP/HRRR and the NAM trends but still looks good for 3-6 in many spots in CT.

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That's all I want...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

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I’ve always thought too many models is a detriment. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve always thought too many models that don’t show me what I want is a detriment. 

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Fixed