Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[wxsniss]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:05 AM, weathafella said:

12k was still 6 inches+ for us.

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Yeah just didn't like the trend, and thinking about rest of SNE... for us specifically, that runaway convection is precluding 10+

 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:29 AM, Sn0waddict said:

This thread is bumming me out sheesh.

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there's always the nowcast. and it's going to be plowable.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:29 AM, wxsniss said:

Yeah just didn't like the trend, and thinking about rest of SNE... for us specifically, that runaway convection is precluding 10+

 

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You'll be lucky for 5 at this rate.

[Hoth]

Balls. Well, it'll be white at least. I'll take it and refocus on mid-month.

[weathafella]

This has been one of the most difficult systems to forecast in a long time.

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:18 AM, weathafella said:

If these mesos are right it’s gonna be ugly in a lot of the region 

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Not much different in my area the difference is in the east and south shore

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:31 AM, weathafella said:

This has been one of the most difficult systems to forecast in a long time.

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it's been one of the only systems in a long time

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Probably will do an updated map in an hour or two, pending a few more pieces of guidance. Bring ‘em down a notch 

[MuddyWx]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:18 AM, moneypitmike said:

01 HRRR is quite a sad thing

 

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There are still a few hours of precip after that. Doesn't look terrible for eastern areas

[weathafella]

A lot of time lost….

 

Oh well-at least clearing it will be easy for the snowblower.  Batteries all charged up.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:31 AM, weathafella said:

This has been one of the most difficult systems to forecast in a long time.

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Competing lows , chasing convection . Seems models struggle mightily with this , I have no idea what will fall but it’s “up in the air” 

[weathafella]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:32 AM, MuddyWx said:

There are still a few hours of precip after that. Doesn't look terrible for eastern areas

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Holy shit-didn’t notice that!  Mpm missing half the qpf….

[weatherwiz]

MDT with moderate snow with light snow falling throughout PA. A bit encouraging but seeing some of the mesos look the way they do right now...we've seen this story before (focusing specifically on CT here).

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:32 AM, MuddyWx said:

There are still a few hours of precip after that. Doesn't look terrible for eastern areas

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[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:33 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Competing lows , chasing convection . Seems models struggle mightily with this , I have no idea what will fall but it’s “up in the air” 

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the idea of an advisory to low-end warning event from west to east has been pretty well modeled for a couple days now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/7/2022 at 1:53 AM, wxsniss said:

Ugh not liking the trend on 0z NAM... eastern low takes over earlier. Still decent hit on eSNE but much less than possible.

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Who cares at this point. Just watch the radar

[weathafella]

Will and Scott lurking and laughing…

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:34 AM, weathafella said:

Holy shit-didn’t notice that!  Mpm missing half the qpf….

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sorry 'bout that.  It still pretty meager given earlier considerations.

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:31 AM, weathafella said:

This has been one of the most difficult systems to forecast in a long time.

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It’s a bit of model waffling indeed. The 00z RAP looked decent. The 23z didn’t. The 01z a bit lower. It’s wishy washy. 

[Henry's Weather]

Can we get a grip? Did people get their hearts set on 8-12?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:35 AM, weathafella said:

Will and Scott lurking and laughing…

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Will probably went to bed. I always notice when he stops posting.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:35 AM, moneypitmike said:

sorry 'bout that.  It still pretty meager given earlier considerations.

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Rays favorite.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:35 AM, weathafella said:

Will and Scott lurking and laughing…

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I was finding their absence notable. 

[WhiteLawns]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:12 AM, CT Rain said:

Oh sorry, I was talking CT. Yeah... still time to get cranking in E Mass especially. 

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Do you think we’ll get low end of your map in the torrington area?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:34 AM, weathafella said:

Holy shit-didn’t notice that!  Mpm missing half the qpf….

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It’s really not that different…. Minus rays favorite CJ

[TalcottWx]

Seems to be like windshield wipers at this point general trend is and has been good leading up to the storm. Ones right ones wrong, at some point throw the models out storm is here

[weathafella]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s really not that different…. Minus rays favorite CJ

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We needed a touch of blue and we got it…lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

I will chase any storm but often I just sit on computer at the hotel and go out for short periods . 

[kdxken]

  On 1/7/2022 at 2:28 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was nice to weenie out for a bit and feel what could have been but the idea of an advisory/low end warning event was always the most likely outcome. Accept it and enjoy it. 

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I'll gladly take 5 inches to smooth out the ruts on the trails. A little rain on Sunday and a hard freeze, looks like smooth wood Gathering next week.

[weathafella]

Globals and euro vs rest of mesos pending 0z gfs.  I’m not staying up for the euro