Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[weatherwiz]

hmmm NAM actually seems to have a great deal of subsidence over Connecticut. 

Makes sense subsidence could occur somewhere given the intensity of the banding which will be involved. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah 3k NAM not as bad, prolonged event in east

12k was still 6 inches+ for us.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

3k is great 5 miles west of 495 eastward 

fixed

[Typhoon Tip]

32km looks like grid point/scale feedback.  3km being below that doesn’t suffer from happenstance thunderstorm complex feedback  

[bristolri_wx]

14 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

So..is the FV3 any good? Because the 00Z run is pretty nice..

I believe it’s based off the same core as the GFS. It’s slated to replace the NAM in the next couple of years. I bet @OceanStWxknows more. I’ve been looking at it since it’s become available and anecdotally it’s seems to be an improvement over the NAM.

[Cmass495]

3k man trend

[CT Rain]

Seems like the convection is going to be an issue. A bit disappointing to see the RAP/HRRR and the NAM trends but still looks good for 3-6 in many spots in CT.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the convection is going to be an issue. A bit disappointing to see the RAP/HRRR and the NAM trends but still looks good for 3-6 in many spots.

CT or regionwide?  I'm thinking EMA should do better than 3-6.

[CT Rain]

Just now, weathafella said:

CT or regionwide?  I'm thinking EMA should do better than 3-6.

Oh sorry, I was talking CT. Yeah... still time to get cranking in E Mass especially. 

[78Blizzard]

Well, the convection out east seems to be weakening to me.

https://radar.weather.gov/

[JC-CT]

yeah, sad. maybe ginxy is far enough east to cash in

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CT or regionwide?  I'm thinking EMA should do better than 3-6.

I’d take the 3-6” and run anywhere NW of Bos 

[weathafella]

If these mesos are right it’s gonna be ugly in a lot of the region 

[moneypitmike]

01 HRRR is quite a sad thing

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The rap even looks like crap compared to 18z ..last time I looked .

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Harvey's map sounds perfect as usual 

Stein.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

If these mesos are right it’s gonna be ugly in a lot of the region 

Going to be counting on good ratios to get modest numbers.

[bishbish777]

Huh...the last minute trend east on the mesos is quite sad. It's just about go time so we'll see soon enough. 18Z GFS was still cracked, very curious if 00Z will be similar.

[kdxken]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

fixed

Come get my snow I am about 3 miles east.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

You would think the mesos would have a better handle at this point, so the east pull and general subdued nature of the event in general on some of these runs is concerning.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein.

Bring 'em down.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be counting on good ratios to get modest numbers.

Especially in Taunton they always seem to get gypped.

[tunafish]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, the convection out east seems to be weakening to me.

https://radar.weather.gov/

Not sure the this is the best guide, but WV doesn't show any weakening

 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-10-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Not sure the this is the best guide, but WV doesn't show any weakening

 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-10-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

yeah, clearly the opposite - as expected

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

yeah, clearly the opposite - as expected

It actually looks to be strengthening to me, these mesos are going to be right, unfortunately 

[moneypitmike]

It's a good thing that people in Tolland are sleeping.

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It actually looks to be strengthening to me, these mesos are going to be right, unfortunately 

yes, that's the opposite of weakening lol. I was just looking for a trend of weakening vs modeling which didn't happen. the opposite also seems to be happening there, at least as the model trends are concerned.

[kdxken]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

It's a good thing that people in Tolland are sleeping.

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It was nice to weenie out for a bit and feel what could have been but the idea of an advisory/low end warning event was always the most likely outcome. Accept it and enjoy it. 

[Sn0waddict]

This thread is bumming me out sheesh.