Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[MaineJayhawk]

1 hour ago, tunafish said:

I thought MAUL was a descriptor of snow rates, but perhaps it's an acronym for something?

 

I don't believe anybody answered you, Tuna.  MAUL is indeed an acronym .. Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

not sure how cool it was for the folks that lived there, but even back then it was AEMATT

It was most definitely not cool for them.  

[ORH_wxman]

Central WV is getting crushed right now. Doesn’t happen too often there west of the mountains. Usually a snow hole but not today. 

[bishbish777]

How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point? Seems several hours too early to really be able to tell that. Also, you would think that a weaker offshore component would be reflected in the hourly HRRR runs, which is definitely is not at this moment.

[JC-CT]

Just now, bishbish777 said:

How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point?

I'd tell you the answer, but I just don't feel like it.

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

Not telling the people beforehand was a little mean though jk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still has to fall first. Just glad we’ll all have a nice pack until we warm up on Feb. will be a nice wintry stretch 

Yea. It could be a good rest of month with the trough vanishing out west. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Central WV is getting crushed right now. Doesn’t happen too often there west of the mountains. Usually a snow hole but not today. 

I’ve noticed when they do, we do 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a sick sounding for BDL. 

Send some of those to 495/pike

 

 

7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

Yeah--it's a fascinating history of the lost towns of the Quabbin:  Dana, Greenwich, Enfield and Prescott.  I've read a few books on the history of it--really should be a movie.   Not a Deliverance movie--though that had to do with drowning a town, too.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point? Seems several hours too early to really be able to tell that. Also, you would think that a weaker offshore component would be reflected in the hourly HRRR runs, which is definitely is not at this moment.

It's right up there with the radar hallucinations.

[weathafella]

I just watched Harvey for the first time in probably a year.  Man he’s good!  But he is looking old!  No sugarcoating 70+

[JC-CT]

See, what we are trying to do here, is we are trying to squeeze them together.

[JC-CT]

Just now, JC-CT said:

See, what we are trying to do here, is we are trying to squeeze them together.

Unfortunately, I'm getting the sense that doing it half-assed is actually a bad thing.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just watched Harvey for the first time in probably a year.  Man he’s good!  But he is looking old!  No sugarcoating 70+

The last of the great ones.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Gill!

Home of the Gillbillies!  
Gill is more in the Greenfield area.  Cool little town. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, tunafish said:

I thought MAUL was a descriptor of snow rates, but perhaps it's an acronym for something?

 

 

15 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I don't believe anybody answered you, Tuna.  MAUL is indeed an acronym .. Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

[OceanStWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is definitely a true nowcast system. Pretty fun. Difference between 4-6” and 8-12” is going to be that convection and whether it actually disrupts the conveyor or not. 

Way more fun than a 96 hour lock. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

Also usually a sign that TSSN is possible

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

What indicates where the unstable layer is? Is it the dew vector zigging towards the temp on a sounding?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Way more fun than a 96 hour lock. 

I’ve talked about this storm before (you prob were not in SNE for this as you would’ve been back in Ithaca still ripping beers)…but I remember getting convectively robbed in the Feb 28-Mar1, 2005 storm. 8-12” forecast turned into like 5-6” because this massive blob of convection formed just E of LI and tracks over PYM and the Cape…it was snow there and they got 5” per hour. Our old friend messenger got 13” in 3-4 hours and 16 total I think. While back in ORH we got robbed. 
 

That was obviously a negative bust for me but thankfully we got a positive one 12 days later on March 12, 2005 when a 3-5” forecast turned into 11” from a pseudo IVT coastal. 

[ineedsnow]

congrats on the blizzard warning in far eastern Maine

[OceanStWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What indicates where the unstable layer is? Is it the dew vector zigging towards the temp on a sounding?

It’s unstable based on the moist adiabatic lapse rate (6.5 C/km). So if the forecast sounding lapse rate is steeper than that it qualifies.

[Lava Rock]

Way more fun than a 96 hour lock. 

12" for me right?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Question guys? I know we don't like to use ensembles this close in, but what do we think about the GEFS really ramping up at this stage? Quite a few more really amped members and a very high mean compared to the last 15-20 runs, I know it usually follows its op run, do you guys think it's just noise following the op run, or showing the potential of this ramping up more at 00z?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Question guys? I know we don't like to use ensembles this close in, but what do we think about the GEFS really ramping up at this stage? Quite a few more really amped members and a very high mean compared to the last 15-20 runs, I know it usually follows its op run, do you guys think it's just noise following the op run, or showing the potential of this ramping up more at 00z?

isn't it also just spread decreasing?

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone monitoring Rap? Is it still Rapping?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, JC-CT said:

isn't it also just spread decreasing?

Well the spread now is like 3-6" vs 6-10"

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Well that's age discrimination, and in CT even reverse age discrimination is illegal.

LOL can't be discrimination if there's no candidates 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone monitoring Rap? Is it still Rapping?

Not rapping as hard anymore. Sounds like 2021 commercial radio stuff the past few runs.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

isn't it also just spread decreasing?

pretty much all members jumped west at 18z