Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He had 1–3” ORH west 2 days ago when others had 4-8 etc 

Nobody had 4-8" 2 days ago on Tuesday there. Show me a tv met that showed that.

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs.

Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

100%. the event is capped purely because it is booking along, but we could afford a healthier conveyer belt

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Nobody had 4-8" 2 days ago on Tuesday. Show me a tv met that showed that here.

Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs.

Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.

Yeah it's a CAM which means it could be keying on that low a bit too much, or it's right...lol. Seems kind of an outlier, but something to watch.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

On this board yes, but I don't see any Mainstream media evidence.

[mob1]

Lowest current observed surface pressure is near Boone NC at 1006 mb, it's in the mountains though so it's probably a bit higher. 

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope it’s wrong 

Bring ‘em down. 

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There may be a TROWAL formulation getting going. That deeper westerly cyclone node probably occludes to that "fake" low, but in reality ...it may be dominant - in route to becoming so in the next runs.

It would be a hoot if all this consternation all week was just convective feed-back hallucinations ... But anyway, as that eastern low decays in future guidance, that increases the elevated warm tongue wrapping back west -

I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics.

See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics.

See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.

Yeah... this is an interesting now-cast later evening and night.  

 

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Gill!

Helluva tavern

Anyway if mother nature is taking volunteers I'll sign up for a subby zone if she gives me a mesoband rotting over Charlemont.  The ORH band is taken as a given.

[Damage In Tolland]

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

like, every single grid point?

[wxsniss]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... this is an interesting now-cast later evening and night.  

 

Definitely, awesome nowcast event with good rationale to anticipate upside...

[Greg]

Well watch tonight to see which SLP dominates. You'll know pretty easily with both the central pressure and areas of convection

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

Dongs out to you friend, well done. 6" seems doable for WOR folk along 84. 

[wxsniss]

Gotta step away for a few... will post more realtime when I can

23z (18z 3k NAM left, mesoanalysis right)

[weathafella]

Well based on everything I’m seeing, I need to up by 7 to see the good stuff from 7-Noon.   Fun times ahead.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dongs out to you friend, well done. 6" seems doable for WOR folk along 84. 

Still has to fall first. Just glad we’ll all have a nice pack until we warm up on Feb. will be a nice wintry stretch 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

Yeah it has

[TalcottWx]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Gill!

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

[weathafella]

So per what wxniss just posted the coastal is 1012 vs modeled 1007 at this time by NAM?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

Yep.  You can take a nuke walk through Dana center and see some old cellar holes and foundations etc.  neat history

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

ya pretty nuts... those people in the eastern part of the state needed more of our qpf 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So per what wxniss just posted the coastal is 1012 vs modeled 1007 at this time by NAM?

The convection off NC is much lighter than modelled, for now. That's all I know. 

[ORH_wxman]

This is definitely a true nowcast system. Pretty fun. Difference between 4-6” and 8-12” is going to be that convection and whether it actually disrupts the conveyor or not. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Gotta step away for a few... will post more realtime when I can

23z (18z 3k NAM left, mesoanalysis right)

fwiw, i am starting to see signs of a possible defined lower level circulation to the southeast of the radar returns

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya pretty nuts... those people in the eastern part of the state needed more of our qpf 

Boston was thirsty. 

[radarman]

not sure how cool it was for the folks that lived there, but even back then it was AEMATT

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

Used to fish there a lot,  some remains of buildings are still visible, there's an island where a house was and the only thing left is the chimney, beautiful place, thinking of getting another boat and start fishing out there again. Good snow spot too.