Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

He had 1–3” ORH west 2 days ago when others had 4-8 etc 

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Nobody had 4-8" 2 days ago on Tuesday there. Show me a tv met that showed that.

[wxsniss]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:44 PM, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

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That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs.

Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

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100%. the event is capped purely because it is booking along, but we could afford a healthier conveyer belt

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:54 PM, Greg said:

Nobody had 4-8" 2 days ago on Tuesday. Show me a tv met that showed that here.

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Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:56 PM, wxsniss said:

That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs.

Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.

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Yeah it's a CAM which means it could be keying on that low a bit too much, or it's right...lol. Seems kind of an outlier, but something to watch.

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

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On this board yes, but I don't see any Mainstream media evidence.

[mob1]

Lowest current observed surface pressure is near Boone NC at 1006 mb, it's in the mountains though so it's probably a bit higher. 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:54 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope it’s wrong 

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Bring ‘em down. 

[wxsniss]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There may be a TROWAL formulation getting going. That deeper westerly cyclone node probably occludes to that "fake" low, but in reality ...it may be dominant - in route to becoming so in the next runs.

It would be a hoot if all this consternation all week was just convective feed-back hallucinations ... But anyway, as that eastern low decays in future guidance, that increases the elevated warm tongue wrapping back west -

I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

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Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics.

See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:02 PM, wxsniss said:

Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics.

See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.

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Yeah... this is an interesting now-cast later evening and night.  

 

[radarman]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:49 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Gill!

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Helluva tavern

Anyway if mother nature is taking volunteers I'll sign up for a subby zone if she gives me a mesoband rotting over Charlemont.  The ORH band is taken as a given.

[Damage In Tolland]

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

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like, every single grid point?

[wxsniss]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:03 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... this is an interesting now-cast later evening and night.  

 

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Definitely, awesome nowcast event with good rationale to anticipate upside...

[Greg]

Well watch tonight to see which SLP dominates. You'll know pretty easily with both the central pressure and areas of convection

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes people did have that . Sorry Gregor

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Dongs out to you friend, well done. 6" seems doable for WOR folk along 84. 

[wxsniss]

Gotta step away for a few... will post more realtime when I can

23z (18z 3k NAM left, mesoanalysis right)

[weathafella]

Well based on everything I’m seeing, I need to up by 7 to see the good stuff from 7-Noon.   Fun times ahead.  

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:09 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dongs out to you friend, well done. 6" seems doable for WOR folk along 84. 

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Still has to fall first. Just glad we’ll all have a nice pack until we warm up on Feb. will be a nice wintry stretch 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the HrRr ever gotten a snow event correct ?

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Yeah it has

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 10:49 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Gill!

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Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

[weathafella]

So per what wxniss just posted the coastal is 1012 vs modeled 1007 at this time by NAM?

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:15 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

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Yep.  You can take a nuke walk through Dana center and see some old cellar holes and foundations etc.  neat history

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:15 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

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ya pretty nuts... those people in the eastern part of the state needed more of our qpf 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:16 PM, weathafella said:

So per what wxniss just posted the coastal is 1012 vs modeled 1007 at this time by NAM?

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The convection off NC is much lighter than modelled, for now. That's all I know. 

[ORH_wxman]

This is definitely a true nowcast system. Pretty fun. Difference between 4-6” and 8-12” is going to be that convection and whether it actually disrupts the conveyor or not. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:13 PM, wxsniss said:

Gotta step away for a few... will post more realtime when I can

23z (18z 3k NAM left, mesoanalysis right)

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fwiw, i am starting to see signs of a possible defined lower level circulation to the southeast of the radar returns

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:18 PM, ineedsnow said:

ya pretty nuts... those people in the eastern part of the state needed more of our qpf 

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Boston was thirsty. 

[radarman]

not sure how cool it was for the folks that lived there, but even back then it was AEMATT

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/6/2022 at 11:15 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

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Used to fish there a lot,  some remains of buildings are still visible, there's an island where a house was and the only thing left is the chimney, beautiful place, thinking of getting another boat and start fishing out there again. Good snow spot too.