Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

18z 3k NAM (left) vs. mesoanalysis for 22z... this is promising... (the east system is weak / disorganized)

 

21z HRRR (vs. earlier runs) hangs on to the eastern SLP a little longer... let's hope it's wrong

Yeah. It looks pretty anemic at hour 0, but then boom, between hours 1 and 3 it just blows up the convection.

Wait, where have I seen that before? Oh yeah, just every single run for the entire day.

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Good luck finding a replacement these days. 

Thats why all my guys are older!

[tunafish]

Followed this thread more close than I would in typical events.  Just wanted to say THANKS to all the Mets and seasoned vets for their analysis, this has been an invaluable learning experience for me (at least leading up to go time).

[JC-CT]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Thats why all my guys are older!

Well let's hope your business is located in MA and not CT

[George001]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Wow that comparison looks like it bodes excellently for a consolidated evolution

The strength of the western low is 1008 mb right now, 4mb stronger than the NAM had it. The eastern low is also weaker, I’m not entirely sure what that means, but it’s probably a good sign that the storm as a whole will be stronger and more west. I hope so anyways.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Well let's hope your business is located in MA and not CT

CT... 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

The strength of the western low is 1008 mb right now, 4mb stronger than the NAM had it. The eastern low is also weaker, I’m not entirely sure what that means, but it’s probably a good sign that the storm as a whole will be stronger and more west. I hope so anyways.

The next several hours will be telling with that. 

[George001]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

The next several hours will be telling with that. 

Yep, going to be fun to track this one.

[TalcottWx]

I'm behind on thread apologies if already posted

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1479220692637962242?t=y7khq2chlYZ3ICs_vmWcog&s=19

[JC-CT]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

CT... 

Well that's age discrimination, and in CT even reverse age discrimination is illegal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well that's age discrimination, and in CT even reverse age discrimination is illegal.

What about in Eastern RI?

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

[JC-CT]

15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

18z 3k NAM (left) vs. mesoanalysis for 22z... this is promising... (the east system is weak / disorganized)

 

21z HRRR (vs. earlier runs) hangs on to the eastern SLP a little longer... let's hope it's wrong

Word of warning though, the radar returns on the spc mesoanalysis is always way underdone. It's a little more robust than that right now.

[JC-CT]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

What about in Eastern RI?

CT is one of very few states that protects against reverse age discrimination

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah. It looks pretty anemic at hour 0, but then boom, between hours 1 and 3 it just blows up the convection.

Wait, where have I seen that before? Oh yeah, just every single run for the entire day.

Yep, exemplified by 21z HRRR... between 4z and 5z Friday poof it develops a surface low far east that drives the show and refuses to give up the wheel... almost as if the strong vorticity rounding KY/WV were not there... doesn't make sense to me.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

Taint 4 South Weymouth?

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yes... that has me worried for the Hartford area. Could definitely see a 10" jack in that mid level banding given the MAUL and good snow growth. 

Some pretty impressive signaling on the guidance since last night for Connecticut. There's still a few caveats but getting a bit hard to ignore some of the signals favoring heavy banding traversing much of the state. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Taint 4 South Weymouth?

Advisories for all.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

CT is one of very few states that protects against reverse age discrimination

Did you miss the geography lesson earlier?

[78Blizzard]

Reports of heavy snow over entire E KY and W WV, with visibility 1/4 mi in light winds.

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Did you miss the geography lesson earlier?

oh. Well, the ocean is international territory so they have to follow UN regulations.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How much for shutesbury?

Shutesbury and that entire W Quabbin area is one of the least populated parts of the state. Surrounded by thriving population centers such as Wendell, Petersham, New Salem and Leverett.   Great hiking and XC skiing though!

[wxsniss]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Word of warning though, the radar returns on the spc mesoanalysis is always way underdone. It's a little more robust than that right now.

Definitely, I actually assumed it was a radar sparse area over the ocean... I'm looking at the pressure and wind field response of the ocean low, which are clearly lagging at least vs. 18z 3k NAM.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Shutesbury and that entire W Quabbin area is one of the least populated parts of the state. Surrounded by thriving population centers such as Wendell, Petersham, New Salem and Leverett.   Great hiking and XC skiing though!

Gill!

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

Well the 21z RAP cut back too, but for it to be correct, the western slp actually needs to move south over the next 4 hours. So...

[JC-CT]

New 22z HRRR, hour 0, vs prior two runs. Shocking, just shocking.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not really. Last night he was one of the first to go 4-8" here while many were still at 3-6". Not sure what you're getting at unless you mean you area specifically.

He had 1–3” ORH west 2 days ago when others had 4-8 etc 

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

18z GFS almost looks like it's wrapping the convection into eastern MA by 12z Friday... Will mentioned this hypothetical earlier:

There may be a TROWAL formulation getting going. That deeper westerly cyclone node probably occludes to that "fake" low, but in reality ...it may be dominant - in route to becoming so in the next runs.

It would be a hoot if all this consternation all week was just convective feed-back hallucinations ... But anyway, as that eastern low decays in future guidance, that increases the elevated warm tongue wrapping back west -

I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

[BrianW]

 

Roads are going to be a disaster tomorrow. I'm sure other states besides CT are having the same issue. 

Prolonged CT storm could pose ‘huge problem’ for shorthanded DOT, official says.

According to Eucalitto, there are 265 absences from the highway operations division, responsible for snow cleanup, along with 193 unfilled positions.

The absences, Eucalitto said, are DOT employees who have tested positive and are quarantining, or are waiting for a test in order to work.

https://www.ctinsider.com/news/article/Prolonged-CT-storm-could-pose-huge-problem-16752659.php

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is the official weenie deflator.

Hope it’s wrong