Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Cmass495]

Quote

Guidance suite is in pretty good agreement on low track a bit south
and east of the benchmark Friday morning. While this is a
progressive system, it will pack a punch as negatively tilted trough
sweeps across the region with up to 200m height falls off the coast
and dynamic tropopause lowering to about 600 mb. This will result in
explosive deepening with pres falls up to 20 mb from 06-18z ensuring
a period of heavy snow for SNE, especially eastern New Eng. Guidance
has trended a bit SE with heavy banding potential which focuses
heaviest snowfall along and SE of I-95 into SE MA which is NW of a
developing closed 850 mb low tracking across Nantucket. This system
is expected to remain an open wave above 700 mb so this will limit
duration of heaviest snowfall and preclude a major snowstorm for
SNE. Usually we need the 700 mb low closing off to to get a quasi
stationary band and we do not see that with this storm. However, a
moderate snowstorm is expected.

Timing, details and impact...

Snow will overspread SNE between 4-6 AM from west to east. The snow
will ramp up quickly and become heavy at times within an hour of
starting.  There is a very strong signal for mesoscale banding
associated with strong mid level frontogenesis. It`s always a
challenge to forecast where banding sets up but latest trends are
favorable for areas along and SE of I-95. Very favorable snow growth
with 30+ units of omega extending into the DGZ suggests potential
for 1-2"/hour snowfall rates from 6-10 am and RI and eastern MA.
Areas to the west from eastern CT through central and NE MA will be
on the western periphery of the banding and we do expect a period of
heavy snow here as well so we upgraded to a winter storm warning in
these areas. It is still possible this banding can shift and it is
essentially a nowcasting situation when the bands begin to develop
on radar. Western MA and western CT will likely remain west of best
forcing which just a brief period of mod/hvy snow as the fgen band
lifts ENE Fri morning. Heavy snow will also impact Cape Cod but
accums here are a bit more uncertain and will be quite variable from
east to west. We upgraded Cape Cod to a warning but this will be
mainly for areas west of Hyannis. While the heaviest QPF is expected
over the Cape/Islands and MVY, best omega is below the favorable
snowgrowth region here and temps near or a bit above freezing will
limit SLR below 10:1. In addition, a mix or even change to rain is
likely for a few hours over Nantucket and possibly up to Chatham.
Winter weather advisories are in place for MVY and BID but nothing
for Nantucket where minimal accums are expected.

 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rgem better than 12z which was better than 6z. 

Better for western areas, not much change otherwise.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

what happens if you only get 2"?  Book back onto work?  lol   I used to commute 110 miles a day from hilly NH to MA round trip and it was pretty dicey

If he was my employee, he'd be fired! Millennial work ethic...

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, tunafish said:

WCSH going bullish up here 

GYX has Pit2 progged for 3-6.  That's pretty close.

[Damage In Tolland]

This reminds me of a couple storms over last few years where no one thought a double digit could happen .. and a few places that got under the heavy , fluff band stacked up 10-11”. One of those was on a Saturday a couple years ago and I believe JC- CT had 10”

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rgem better than 12z which was better than 6z. 

It would still be an uber-dissapointment.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

This will result in explosive deepening with pres falls up to 20 mb from 06-18z

Getting close to bombogenesis.

[Cmass495]

Where is the go-to place to get hourly surface maps? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

It would still be an uber-dissapointment.

It's not a good model but it moved nw  the past 3 cycles so it confirms the consensus at least. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

If he was my employee, he'd be fired! Millennial work ethic...

lol born in 86 and one of the best workers they got not a chance 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me of a couple storms over last few years where no one thought a double digit could happen .. and a few places that got under the heavy , fluff band stacked up 10-11”. One of those was on a Saturday a couple years ago and I believe JC- CT had 10”

Its pretty similar in terms of speed/amounts to 2-17 and 4-2 2018,  both events had much lousier air masses in place and the setups were not the same but I don't recall any other storms that dropped 6 plus in many areas in a shorter span than those did.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

Where is the go-to place to get hourly surface maps? 

I use rap

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/

 

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me of a couple storms over last few years where no one thought a double digit could happen .. and a few places that got under the heavy , fluff band stacked up 10-11”. One of those was on a Saturday a couple years ago and I believe JC- CT had 10”

That was only last year, the storm I've been referencing a few times. Most fx were 4-8.

The duration was short. 9a-4p here. 

[NW_of_GYX]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm sure he talked with Gutner, But Carson loves him some Euro, He's been itching the last two days to be able to do that lol

Carson has been posting hate mail to his Instagram account that he's received from viewers complaining that he's too much of a weenie. He's leaning into it, love to see it

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected

Could that be a sign this ends up a major blizzard in your opinion?

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah let’s get some radar hallucinations going.  

 

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That was only last year, the storm I've been referencing a few times. Most fx were 4-8.

The duration was short. 9a-4p here. 

Yeah that was it. That will happen with this wherever that fluff mid level band sets up 

[JC-CT]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That was only last year, the storm I've been referencing a few times. Most fx were 4-8.

The duration was short. 9a-4p here. 

oh yeah, that one pivoted/trained or whatever right over me

[Henry's Weather]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Getting close to bombogenesis.

That is bombo I believe. -20 mb/12 hours is greater than a 1 mb fall per hour. I might be butchering some ancillary part of the def though

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

That is bombo I believe. -20 mb/12 hours is greater than a 1 mb fall per hour

It's usually designated for a 24 hour period....so you'd want to see 24mb in 24 hours....which this one will achieve too.

[Lava Rock]

29 minutes ago, tunafish said:

WCSH going bullish up here 

135 pages for 2-4" here.

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS looks a hair more amped at 6 hours vs 12z at 12 hours.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS looks a hair more amped at 6 hours vs 12z at 12 hours.

best run yet

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

135 pages for 2-4" here.

That's double what I'm expecting here.  

This one's for E SNE.    Hopefully we catch up the next 2 weeks.

[ORH_wxman]

Gonna be zonked this run

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could that he a sign this ends up a major blizzard in your opinion?

1-2 feet with 4-5 foot drifts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

best run yet

For everyone, or just western areas? I heard the same thing about the NAM, and it was worse north. 

[bishbish777]

18Z GFS 

[ineedsnow]

woah GFS

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For everyone, or just western areas? I heard the same thing about the NAM, and it was worse north. 

Best run since 6z Tuesday, for everyone as far as I can tell