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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/6/2022 at 7:41 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question.

Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.

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I agree in principle that either end of that spread might not make a huge difference.  Thing is... like I was just mentioning to Scott, the v trajectory climo has y'all in CT -NW RI- eastern MA is a sweet spot.   Obviously climo is what it is and not all storms have to obey the mean.  Still, there's some impressive frontogenic looks to this along said axis.  

It'll be fun to watch for convection behavior later in the evening .. overnight.  Pleezy weezie with sugar on top, can we bust one positive like the good ole days?

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:14 PM, ineedsnow said:

called out of work tonight.. no way do I want to drive over 30 miles home in this tomorrow morning... Main reason is I can sleep tonight wake up early and weenie out!! :snowing: 

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what happens if you only get 2"?  Book back onto work?  lol   I used to commute 110 miles a day from hilly NH to MA round trip and it was pretty dicey

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George001

George001

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The TV mets and NWS have increased their forecasts in my area today. The NAM looks like it’s having issues with the convection and it still drops 8-10 inches of snow in eastern mass. Imagine if that went away completely, it looks like models are strengthening the more tucked low than the one outside the benchmark.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree in principle that either end of that spread might not make a huge difference.  Thing is... like I was just mentioning to Scott, the v trajectory climo has y'all in CT -NW RI- eastern MA is a sweet spot.   Obviously climo is what it is and not all storms have to obey the mean.  Still, there's some impressive frontogenic looks to this along said axis.  

It'll be fun to watch for convection behavior later in the evening .. overnight.  Pleezy weezie with sugar on top, can we bust one positive like the good ole days?

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How about we just slingshot some of that convection into the conveyor system of this storm? Get an ole' fashioned 4" per hour bust job somewhere.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:18 PM, Torch Tiger said:

what happens if you only get 2"?  Book back onto work?  lol   I used to commute 110 miles a day from hilly NH to MA each way and it was pretty dicey

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ill take it.. it would tie our biggest storm of the year.. But seems like we will do better for sure.. Last big snow event was mid April

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This is why I have remained fairly bullish on this threat from a few days ago....the vort tracks almost ideal for SNE snow events.

I still am not convinced the circulation doesn't end up more consolidated sooner than shown either.

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Oh absolutely ... I mean, I think this could now-cast favorably overnight.  I think it's a candidate for a short range improvement scenario. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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  On 1/6/2022 at 7:41 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question.

Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.

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Hi

  On 1/5/2022 at 8:54 PM, JC-CT said:

I think the western "skew" is still somewhat an artifact of the dual/elongated low. if you have two relatively equal pressure centers, or one elongated pressure center, it could chose to put the L on the east or the west but the reality is that it is both. That's not all of what's going on, but it has to be some of it.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:14 PM, wxsniss said:

Here we go...

Awesome nowcast event with very reasonable high bust potential, especially for eastern SNE

Excellent map from what I'm seeing at the moment:

StormTotalSnowWeb1_Jan6_3pm.thumb.jpeg.fc7fe25b5fa4f4b4f823dfe41c69375e.jpeg

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My area has literally been 2” max since Sunday night.  That would still be the biggest snowfall of the season here.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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...I mean... I don't wanna get my ears pinned back if it doesn't.  just imagining it could nowcast more impacting.

You know ... the convection isn't there - yet.  I mean... it's like the models detect instability and 'trigger' from whatever fractals they need to fire it off.  But, what if the triggers don't happen?

Basically any time a storm gets enhanced(diminished) by "as yet" virtual generated processes, there's no guarantee there.  Oh it's likely this thing will have a squadron of super cells out there ( oy ) but that doesn't mean they are also exhaustive on inflow, either.  That's a 2ndary -

Meanwhile, like Will and I were just surmising how the synoptics look like an NJ model bomb. They do.  I can find a lot of cases at NCEP Library where flat open waves with big wind cores missiled off southern Jersey and Brockton Mass got 14" for it.  

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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  On 1/6/2022 at 8:30 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

...I mean... I don't wanna get my ears pinned back if it doesn't.  just imagining it could nowcast more impacting.

You know ... the convection isn't there - yet.  I mean... it's like the models detect instability and 'trigger' from whatever fractals they need to fire it off.  But, what if the triggers don't happen?

Basically any time a storm gets enhanced(diminished) by "as yet" virtual generated processes, there's not guarantee there.  Oh it's likely this thing will have a squadron of super cells out there ( oy ) but that doesn't mean they are also exhaustive on inflow, either.  That's a 2ndary -

Meanwhile, like Will and I were just surmising how the synoptics look like an NJ model bomb. They do.  I can find a lot of cases at NCEP Library where flat open waves with big wind cores missiled off southern Jersey and Brockton Mass got 14" for it.  

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Every run of the HRRR...hour 0 there's much less convection, then hour 1 POOF there it is. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

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