Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 7:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM is going to be good for many.

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Late to the party, but knocked a few back to loosen up.

[CoastalWx]

Man you can see how this would be a nuke if that shit convection moved out. This thing wants to blow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

E MA getting it good.

[ORH_wxman]

This run is prolonging the snowfall too. Really trying to make that western low more dominant by 15z tomorrow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 7:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

Man you can see how this would be a nuke if that shit convection moved out. This thing wants to blow.

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I just want to pop that zit.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2022 at 7:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

Man you can see how this would be a nuke if that shit convection moved out. This thing wants to blow.

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Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

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That 15z image is ever so close.  Just a few hours earlier.

[wxsniss]

Hugely improved and illustrates the high bust potential, especially for eastern SNE

Better digging vorticity, much more emphasis on the western low center

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The blob is annoying. Could have nuked us otherwise. Still good though. First legit snowfall of the season for many.

[forkyfork]

the 3k is more consolidated 

[weathafella]

As is NAM is 6-10:for me.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Verbatim that's an above average hit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

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That is where I thought this was headed with my original 6-12" call on Tuesday, but that convective dual low crap ended up real.

[George001]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

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Just a couple adjustments away? Like the sound of that! 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Will the convection be starting off the Delmarva later tonight?

[Spanks45]

NAM precip distribution looks like the 18z RAP...nice to finally see the 12k have a good run

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is where I thought this was headed with my original 6-12" call on Tuesday, but that convective dual low crap ended up real.

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Hard to forecast that IMHO (the lil convective blob). That didn’t start showing I’m Ernest until yesterday?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

That's the 18z NAM weenie run all of CT has been waiting for the past 3 days

[40/70 Benchmark]

The snow map actually cut back a bit in my area, but haven't looked at mid levels.

[ineedsnow]

3k looks fun

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:04 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hard to forecast that IMHO (the lil convective blob). That didn’t start showing I’m Ernest until yesterday?

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No, Monday, but I didn't buy it at first. I thought I would be ramping up from 6-12"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I liked 12z better...if this continues, fine...but this provisional solution is not as good for me.

[Cyclone-68]

At least I’ll have had more snow than northern FL by tomorrow 

[Sn0waddict]

19z rap is even better than 18z lol

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/6/2022 at 7:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

Man you can see how this would be a nuke if that shit convection moved out. This thing wants to blow.

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It may yet ...  in a way -

I mean... even if we don't get some nucleated 980 low 50 Mi fram ACK, I don't think J.Q. Public is going to know the difference or know to care if they are sitting in rush-hour under a frontogenic thump.  I keep looking at the PVA track and it's pretty much ideal for heavy snow climo ... 2 deg polar side of the torpedo path -

Ryan's right ..this thing is just uniquely odd

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 7:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This run is prolonging the snowfall too. Really trying to make that western low more dominant by 15z tomorrow.

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Days and days 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I liked 12z better...if this continues, fine...but this provisional solution is not as good for me.

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The QPF on the N end is compressed more, but the heavier echoes are tossed more to the south....if the H7 low closes fast enough, this will be be fine bc mid level banding will have higher totals north of QPF, but if the mid levels don't get going fast enough, its a slightly worse solution for northern folks.

[weatherwiz]

That's going to be a huge dump of snow for many in a short amount of time. That's about as perfectly aligned fronto as you could ask to get a good chunk of MA/CT into heavy snow. Someone will definitely touch 2''/HR rates.

 

Sounding in NE CT. Beautiful 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2022 at 8:10 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It may yet ...  in a way -

I mean... even if we don't get some nucleated 980 low 50 Mi fram ACK, I don't think J.Q. Public is going to know the difference or know to care if they are sitting in rush-hour under a frontogenic thump.  I keep looking at the PVA track and it's pretty much ideal for heavy snow climo ... 2 deg polar side of the torpedo path -

Ryan's right ..this thing is just uniquely odd

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This is why I have remained fairly bullish on this threat from a few days ago....the vort tracks almost ideal for SNE snow events.

I still am not convinced the circulation doesn't end up more consolidated sooner than shown either.

[ineedsnow]

called out of work tonight.. no way do I want to drive over 30 miles home in this tomorrow morning... Main reason is I can sleep tonight wake up early and weenie out!!