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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

This is definitely an odd look. Can certainly see the EPS struggling with chasing the convection. I actually think even with a really wide spread in those little Ls there's probably not nearly as much spread in the sensible wx impact here. Could certainly see competing lows and a more strung out kind of appearance  but the super out to sea solutions are still going to have a weaker low closer to the coast and plenty of snow in SNE.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-mslp_with_low_locs-1556800 (1).png

I'm still trying to figure out how fake or real the convective low structure is....and it's not binary either. It can be "mostly real" or "mostly fake" but that probably has some meaningful sensible wx impacts.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

That is what I noted to scooter with respect to the GFS speeding that process up at 12z...NAM slowed it down.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

Given that it's 2:40, is fair to say this will be something that's observed rather than forecasted?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Been out of the loop dealing with COVID the past week and just having enough energy to work but seeing the recent trends since overnight runs have given me a boost of energy!!! I was initially a bit meh yesterday afternoon for Connecticut (though didn't completely right anything off yet). Very excited with the 12z runs this morning. 

Seeing stuff like this makes me super happy and excited. Sorry to probably bring up old news but trying to get back into the swing of things again

image.thumb.png.ee0ba4157a9ae25b9c45431ae9f2be93.png

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question.

Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Been out of the loop dealing with COVID the past week and just having enough energy to work but seeing the recent trends since overnight runs have given me a boost of energy!!! I was initially a bit meh yesterday afternoon for Connecticut (though didn't completely right anything off yet). Very excited with the 12z runs this morning. 

Seeing stuff like this makes me super happy and excited. Sorry to probably bring up old news but trying to get back into the swing of things again

image.thumb.png.ee0ba4157a9ae25b9c45431ae9f2be93.png

GLAD YOUR OK!!!! :thumbsup:

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, ineedsnow said:

GLAD YOUR OK!!!! :thumbsup:

Thanks...getting there. It's mostly fatigue that's the killer. 

I think where we sit though. Think the heaviest banding by end up actually a bit farther NW than some indications. It just sucks this thing is moving so quickly...would probably see a max zone upwards of around 10-12'' given the fluff factor. Ratios should be quite good (13-15:1)

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been out of the loop dealing with COVID the past week and just having enough energy to work but seeing the recent trends since overnight runs have given me a boost of energy!!! I was initially a bit meh yesterday afternoon for Connecticut (though didn't completely right anything off yet). Very excited with the 12z runs this morning. 

Seeing stuff like this makes me super happy and excited. Sorry to probably bring up old news but trying to get back into the swing of things again

image.thumb.png.ee0ba4157a9ae25b9c45431ae9f2be93.png

Talk dirty fronto to us.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah absolutely. What I meant by not a huge impact is you can't look at that SLP spread and think some members are whiffs and 200 miles off ACK and others are tucked in near BID. Definitely a dual low structure which makes those spread graphics a bit more difficult to interpret than a straight synoptic low track question.

Given the amount of convection (with intense supercells) the HRRR is blowing up I think the dual low idea is definitely pretty reasonable right now.

Yes agreed....it's not really the true spread showing there on the ensembles...it just some ensembles have the eastern low slightly stronger than the western one so the map "chooses" that low as the main one.

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