Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[SJonesWX]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:05 PM, JC-CT said:

virtually the entire United States is under cloud cover right now

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lol it's sunny up here

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:05 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I'm interested in what kind of early push of WAA we get, how far north it comes, and how vigorous.  Scott has referred to an initial weenie band, and I hope that makes it up into Central NH.

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Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:17 PM, SJonesWX said:

lol it's sunny up here

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yes, east of the Appalachians is the one of the few places there are some holes

[PhineasC]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:18 PM, OceanStWx said:

Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

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What are you guys thinking about the upslope potential? GFS looked decent for 3-4” or so. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Anything that completely covers the grass and provides a wintry landscape that hangs around for more than a couple days is a YUGE victory for this season thus far.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.

 

 

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Thanks man. Good to see the visual. Do you look at other levels or can we gather a decent estimate from h7 only?

[TheSnowman]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:10 PM, UnitedWx said:

Perfect, I despise being in the sun! I have all my life.

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Yup.  Only missed the Sun once in my life, 2005/6 or so when we had cloud cover for 9 days.  Me and Sun don’t get along in Any Capacity at all.  ESPECIALLY melting Snow.
 

Hence the damned “Why does Cory Always wear Sunglasses “  

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:50 PM, ice1972 said:

I was saying be prepared that this is the biggest storm we see this season.......not that this is all we'll get.......come on man

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Yes, even so. If we end up with a few more 3"-6" events, would be a top 5 ratter in the last 20 years.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 3:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

The NAM's 12z solution has Logan with a 9kt NE wind nearing max of this -

9 kts.   Oooh... 

I just the more I waste life looking at this thing the more and more it is speed contaminated-robbed of life. 

By the way, the reason why the NAM keeps "chasing convection" is because of the flat bias to the flow immediately downstream of the S/W we've been tracking.  More short wave ridge curvature in that area would conserve vorticity inward - think of it as negatively interfering those chase points, while postively interfering back west, and that's the feed-back mechanism at work. 

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This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

[tiger_deF]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:37 PM, JC-CT said:

This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

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Mind sharing any of your observations? Sounds fascinating 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:37 PM, JC-CT said:

This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

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doesnt look as good as the models showed in my opinion.. but might mean nothing for us anyways

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:39 PM, ineedsnow said:

doesnt look as good as the models showed in my opinion.. but might mean nothing for us anyways

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You mean the convection might have less than expected impact on the storm, but not enough to make a difference?

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:18 PM, OceanStWx said:

Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

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Thank you Chris.  Sometimes there are those early and very far north weenie bands, but that is just a weenie fantasy.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:21 PM, PhineasC said:

What are you guys thinking about the upslope potential? GFS looked decent for 3-4” or so. 

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Flow looks pretty favorable for NH. Good moisture, a moderate (3-5”) upslope event seems like a good forecast.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:22 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks man. Good to see the visual. Do you look at other levels or can we gather a decent estimate from h7 only?

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Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.

[dryslot]

Just looking at heights out ahead on the 12z Euro @H5 , Looks like this may tic west a little, May just end up noise at this point.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:44 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you Chris.  Sometimes there are those early and very far north weenie bands, but that is just a weenie fantasy.

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There may be, but it would be more deformation than pure WAA driven.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.

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Surface matters sometimes, too, west of the cf...not as extreme, obviously.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:50 PM, dryslot said:

Just looking at heights out ahead on the 12z Euro @H5 , Looks like this may tic west a little, May just end up noise at this point.

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Every little bit helps..let’s tic it west some. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:53 PM, WinterWolf said:

Every little bit helps..let’s tic it west some. 

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Its going to end up the same or a tic east but basically noise as i had said.

[mattm4242]

Sounds like BOX may be bumping up totals again, or at least narrowing the goalposts.

 

 

[JC-CT]

It's a little east but a little deeper

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:54 PM, mattm4242 said:

Sounds like BOX may be bumping up totals again, or at least narrowing the goalposts.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1479141805929103362?s=20

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It just says updating, not increasing.

[dryslot]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:55 PM, JC-CT said:

It's a little east but a little deeper

 

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The on hr off hr deal continues.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:54 PM, mattm4242 said:

Sounds like BOX may be bumping up totals again, or at least narrowing the goalposts.

 

 

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They could also be taking them down lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Ah ... okay -

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0945Z THU JAN 06 2022

...CPRK DATA CENTER DISK STORAGE RECOVERY - UPDATE...

-Rebuild of the data storage in College Park continues. ETR is this afternoon.

Current Impacts:

-WPC, OPC, and CPC's Intranet Sites and Compute farms are down, which is causing their products to be delayed and/or degraded.

-FTPPRD is currently down.

Shirey/SDM/NCO/NCEP"

I was wondering why my go-to products were not updating... 

We did a study back in the 1990s/college, ... when coms -related modeling delays took place, there was - believe it or not - a rather high correlation coefficients to actually getting nailed by a storm.  We thought it was a gag analysis but much to our chagrin - It was pretty remarkable...

Now, obviously.. modeling as a tool assist in prognostic weather efforts, was at the time what ... 25 years old?  And the internet was less reliable/redundant.  Traffic on those particular channels - but we're talking DIFAX charts ( no clue what that means to present generations)

Still, if there was anything on the charts that could feasibly becomes a threat aspect back then, one could almost feel good about forecasting an event based upon transmission failures..  LOL.

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 1/6/2022 at 5:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It just says updating, not increasing.

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"Up" might have been the word segment he focused on

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks similar QPF wise. At least on my graphics.

[Baroclinic Zone]

croaked.  nice bump from 00z.  

[ineedsnow]

bounces back west at hr24 this run would probably have a sweet deform band