Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I don't really understand the difference between Rhode Island and the Atlantic Ocean tbh.

That's why they call it The Ocean State.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Kind of a disappointing snow map considering how close the low was.

Yeah, but I feel that will respond to what the MLs are doing.

[NeonPeon]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I don't really understand the difference between Rhode Island and the Atlantic Ocean tbh.

Try driving off one of the bridges like the tourists do, and everything is illuminated.

[UnitedWx]

41 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

You should see everyone at the gas station here next to my shop! You'd think a blizzard is coming...UGH. Looking forward to the 12Z info

[Typhoon Tip]

The NAM's 12z solution has Logan with a 9kt NE wind nearing max of this -

9 kts.   Oooh... 

I just the more I waste life looking at this thing the more and more it is speed contaminated-robbed of life. 

By the way, the reason why the NAM keeps "chasing convection" is because of the flat bias to the flow immediately downstream of the S/W we've been tracking.  More short wave ridge curvature in that area would conserve vorticity inward - think of it as negatively interfering those chase points, while postively interfering back west, and that's the feed-back mechanism at work. 

[Lava Rock]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

You should see everyone at the gas station here next to my shop! You'd think a blizzard is coming...UGH. Looking forward to the 12Z info

People are brainwashed. Mass psychosis.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Kind of a disappointing snow map considering how close the low was.

The low wasn’t really that close . Shot ENE 

it initially (Near NC/VA coast) didn’t have much of the dual low structure Or lead vorticity , otherwise if it did it would have been worse  

 

[moneypitmike]

Snow maps, shmow maps.  Let's look at qpf.

[tiger_deF]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Snow maps, shmow maps.  Let's look at qpf.

These are so much better than yesterday, yet there's a profoundly melancholic atmosphere here

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Glad the RGEM moved a little west. Gets some decent precip over here. 

Some of these models seem to want to delay bombing until past SNE.

You wonder if the models are delaying the bomb because of chasing that convection...and weather that chase is real or not

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

These are so much better than yesterday, yet there's a profoundly melancholic atmosphere here

And pretty similar to each other as well which is encouraging.

And not wildly off from the HRRR.

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You should see everyone at the gas station here next to my shop! You'd think a blizzard is coming...UGH. Looking forward to the 12Z info

Well keep in mind that some people may not be at to get gas till noon time tomorrow.......

[Warwick WX]

25 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ve been to Rhode Island several times. Went to a friends wedding there and Newport to

 

hot dogs are ok

 

worst roads I HAVE EVER SEEN and I live on Long Island 

Yeah I am close to I-95 and the state does a good job on many of the roads in my neck of the woods, but you are bound to hit some rough roads going to Newport.  Aquidneck Island tends to be neglected by Providence for state highway repairs, and then you have Newport proper which was settled and planned with horses and pedestrians in mind, the road conditions reflect this needless to say!

Fun fact:  the first jail sentence handed down for an automobile speeding ticket in the US was given in Newport in August 1904.  For going the outrageous speed of 15 miles per hour.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS holding serve from 06z run it would appear.

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

People are brainwashed. Mass psychosis.

Hate to see it, but so true. Especially in this area

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2-4" in N ORH county... steady as she goes

I'm still reading thread from two hours ago but I take over. 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well keep in mind that some people may not be at to get gas till noon time tomorrow.......

Then they shouldn't have to worry about it...

[moneypitmike]

GFS is crushing eastern areas at 12z.  Not sure how long that lasts.

[CoastalWx]

Man that is a wall of QPF kissing the coast. Lets get that convection out of there haha.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's a solid hit over all of EMA 

[tiger_deF]

12z GFS seems verbatim but the right lobe is definitely more dominant, and slightly more to the West

[George001]

Someones going to get over a foot with this storm. Models (like the NAM) are struggling with chasing convection, but they look really good at the 500mb.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Thinking 4-7 here for the time being.

6-10“

[moneypitmike]

Not dramatically different from NAMs and HRRR.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man that is a wall of QPF kissing the coast. Lets get that convection out of there haha.

You saw that too.  That is ever so close to a wallop over Plymouth County.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Someones going to get over a foot with this storm. Models (like the NAM) are struggling with chasing convection, but they look really good at the 500mb.

Could be blizzard conditions too.

[CoastalWx]

That weenie band signal makes sense as shown on QPF. Congrats Ray to Will To Kev in that.

[TalcottWx]

28 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ve been to Rhode Island several times. Went to a friends wedding there and Newport to

 

hot dogs are ok

 

worst roads I HAVE EVER SEEN and I live on Long Island 

Okay man thanks I like hot dogs too

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Then they shouldn't have to worry about it...

That is nearly 24 hours from now!!.....no wonder why they are in a panic...

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that is a wall of QPF kissing the coast. Lets get that convection out of there haha.

High stakes in eastern areas....there is definitely some upside bust potential if some of that veyr heavy precip can get onshore....I think really all it will take is a slight increase in the ML inflow which would happen if the convection is less dominant.