Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was just meaning the robbing of the moisture from it chasing any convection off shore that’s all. If it doesn’t chase..it gets going quicker and closer, and the conveyors don’t get impeded…right? 

Ya for sure 

[moneypitmike]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah longitude is actually more important in SNE than latitude in this system.

I'm thinking I might actually have use for my snowblower.  Fingers crossed.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM is pretty zonked 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You the man Tip, only Tip starts threads 7 days out and nails it (well almost still have 24 hours to go)

Heh ... nothing was 'nailed' at 7 day lead, but I get the gesture.

No but this was a pain in the ass.  If it goes down like the frappe blend, I give this a C+ ... B-, but an A+ asshole storm.  LOL

a .. I was in fact not right about the anticipation for a better western ridge. Not sure why ... but objectively, that is so. Historically, more could ( if not "should") have happened when a PNA mode abruptly rises from -2, to +1 SD.    Doing so with a well timed S/W ... what could go wrong?

b .. Well for one, the western ridge isn't happening as it could ( or perhaps "should").  If so... we likely would not have suffered quite as many peregrinations over the course of this last week.  More like normal painintheassitude

c .. Related to that ... compression/velocity biased flows tend to narrow error latitudes.  Hyper precision track this, and intensity that are needed, such that nuance effects prognostics in bigger ways.  Like, we've seen at run times all of 2 deg longitude, or so much as 5 mb of intensity variance, and Framingham Mass goes from 3" or 12,"  ... only to have it bump east 3 by 6 mb and now their in for 2" ...while some other model blips a tiny correction the other way, and product reverses.  A more typical coastal storm manifold ( according to "storm climo" if we will.. ), allows for such subtleties, and here we are not given that at D5 or even 3 ahead of this thing.  It's bit of a tall order. I mean this has been sort of cruel for deterministic pistol suckers. 

c .. So the flow couldn't really "slow" - I put that quotes because more curved, N-S orientation to the flow would have been a way to compensate for gradient, some. Flow would still have maintained vestiges of progressivity, but that would spread things out some, too.  I dunno.. this preliminarily strikes me as the same speed contamination bullshit we've been seeing as an increasing propensity since the year 2000, ...every winter. Not sure if that sort of "got in the way" - speed as a canvas would tend to offset ridge height and trough geometry ( N-S)... so maybe that can be physically shown. 

   

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

Is George the Director 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d go 4-6 east of a line from like Ray, ORH to Ginx…. 2-4 west of there, unless we see some dramatic changes 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM is pretty zonked 

I liked it too. 

[PowderBeard]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

I think it's an easy excuse for something other than the weather. Never had internet issues with them in 3+ years (other than losing power), it has been in and out multiple times this morning. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I liked it too. 

that looked solid, an end to the american guidance nightmare for us at 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM def mixes here for a couple hours.

See this is what happens when I talk smack. Still a good hit nonetheless

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's a sweet RGEM run.  More consolidated at 5h.  Doesn't have nearly as bad a dual low as the NAM does.

[dryslot]

I wouldn't get to twisted up on the RGEM, Its not done very well although, Its better within the last 24 hrs or so as it catches up to the rest of guidance, But have found outside of that it waffles considerably.

[NeonPeon]

10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I was born in RI and have lived here all my life. While East Bay is a commonly used term, no one really uses West Bay to describe anything in the state.

Agreed with that.

[Wonkis]

Here for the RI geography throwdown. —oh yeah, and the 4 inches of snow.

The only RI map you need in winter: 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

I wouldn't get to twisted up on the RGEM, Its not done very well although, Its better within the last 24 hrs or so as it catches up to the rest of guidance, But have found outside of that it waffles considerably.

A couple of hiccups and one or two recent runs but hasn’t it been fairly consistent and showing a more tucked track?

[NeonPeon]

Just now, Wonkis said:

Here for the RI geography throwdown. —oh yeah, and the 4 inches of snow.

The only RI map you need in winter: 

 

You forgot white rain in the bay, but yes.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Wonkis said:

Here for the RI geography throwdown. —oh yeah, and the 4 inches of snow.

The only RI map you need in winter: 

 

switch powder for cement and  cement for rain and it's more accurate

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice bump back west on 06z euro. Man, that off hour/on hour tango is so weird. 

I wonder ... I mentioned this earlier in the season, in passing ..., that it seems whenever more interpolation data is integrating grids, amplitude bias. 

But more so over the longer performance monitoring.   We are consummately seeing big moon bombs coming over the temporal horizons out at the 'horizons' of distance time frames.  And then they up more middling by the time they've come toward the shallower end of the mid ranges... 

interesting. Maybe this situations higher sensitivity exposes that.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A couple of hiccups and one or two recent runs but hasn’t it been fairly consistent and showing a more tucked track?

You're correct, it has to an extent. Ask the Mid-Atlantic people. 

[PhineasC]

Glad the RGEM moved a little west. Gets some decent precip over here. 

Some of these models seem to want to delay bombing until past SNE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’ve just resigned myself to having fears of a last minute shuffle east right up until go time. There’s not much margin for error out here in the great NW territories of MA. 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

LOL 

Now that's an accurate map!

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A couple of hiccups and one or two recent runs but hasn’t it been fairly consistent and showing a more tucked track?

Not really.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ve been to Rhode Island several times. Went to a friends wedding there and Newport to

 

hot dogs are ok

 

worst roads I HAVE EVER SEEN and I live on Long Island 

I've been there too, Its cute.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

I received the same. They can’t even hold a good signal during calm days but yea, blame the power company first.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Now that's an accurate map!

What the RGEM dose like in the post of the NAM12 here is it instead makes the SLP close to New Jersey the Dominant one and you get to see what potentially can happen if that did. That's all it's doing.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's a sweet RGEM run.  More consolidated at 5h.  Doesn't have nearly as bad a dual low as the NAM does.

Kind of a disappointing snow map considering how close the low was.

[JC-CT]

I don't really understand the difference between Rhode Island and the Atlantic Ocean tbh.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Glad the RGEM moved a little west. Gets some decent precip over here. 

Some of these models seem to want to delay bombing until past SNE.

All guidance has it not closing off at H7 until in the GOM....I think that limits the potential for major deformation banding well NW, but it could give a quick boost to NE areas of SNE on the way out.

[IowaStorm05]

Well guys. For CT and RI especially it looks like there’s more model agreement today and we are less than 24 hours away.

I just hope the NW doesn’t have a sharp cutoff. I’m not in the juiciest section predicted but still suggesting I see 3-5 inches.