Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dryslot]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:09 AM, Greg said:

That's actually off a little bit based upon the LE map we just saw if you scroll above. Go out to about 70 hours then do the 24-Hour total for snow, the map will match up better. Can't have 4.4" of snow in Lowell with a 10-1 ratio and 0.5" LE unless the temperature is above 32F based on that output.

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You can't go back or forward, Your out of the snow that's max at hr 54, 60 is 4.4" hr 66 is 3.3" .

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR 

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:09 PM, kdxken said:

Same for Massachusetts. Shutesbury? Who even knows where that is?

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Anyone from ENE north of Boston that went to UMass knows exactly where Shutesbury is. Has one main road that's the perfect cut through to get to Rt. 2 from Amherst.

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:12 PM, DavisStraight said:

My friends lived there when they went to Umass, used to go there all the time, good snow spot.

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That little town is awesome! The topography is really neat. At the bottom of the road it's like 300 ft ASL. Go up the road heading east and goes up to about 1,200 ft ASL and the weather reflects it. IDK how many times I had rain or wet heavy snow in Amherst and a quick drive to Shutesbury cured my snow needs. 

They were also hit pretty hard in the Dec 08 icestorm. Was just as bad as some places in the northern Worcester Hills while 2 miles to the west in Amherst (and surrounding areas) was rain.

If I was forced to live out there, Shutesbury would be at the top of the list.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Who's gonna be the 1st to post the 21z SREF's

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR big hit all the way back to NY border looks like Kevin ran it from his basement. 

[CT Rain]

HRRR coming in hot too with a good bump NW from 18z. Nice start to the 00z suite. 

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:39 AM, dryslot said:

You can't go back or forward, Your out of the snow that's max at hr 54, 60 is 4.4" hr 66 is 3.3" .

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Then if that is true the temperature would have to be a ratio that would be poor to dendrite formation. The temp here in Wilmington would be 29F or something like that. Doesn't make too much sense to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:59 AM, powderfreak said:

You look good on that run.  I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason.  That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE.  Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.

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Its bc the model QPF is mainly from low level fronto, as it struggles with mid levels, which is usually what occurs near edge of low level QPF field. But we need the mid levels to get going a touch sooner in order to toss the moisture back there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kevin is going to be insufferable if this pans out

[dendrite]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:39 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who's gonna be the 1st to post the 21z SREF's

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[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:36 AM, OceanStWx said:

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I miss the days of you checking in beers on Untappd . #Eksterpleasebringtheoldlegroback

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:41 AM, CT Rain said:

HRRR coming in hot too with a good bump NW from 18z. Nice start to the 00z suite. 

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Hot and bothered like a thief in the night 

[Zeus]

Good luck up there, boys,

[dryslot]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:43 AM, Greg said:

Then if that is true the temperature would have to be a ratio that would be poor to dendrite formation. The temp here in Wilmington would be 29F or something like that. Doesn't make too much sense to me. 

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8-9:1?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is the s/w fully sampled at this point?

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:45 AM, Zeus said:

Good luck up there, boys,

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You left us?   Back to EE land?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:44 AM, dendrite said:

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what's wrong with this?

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:45 AM, Zeus said:

Good luck up there, boys,

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Holy shit!  How you been my friend?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:41 AM, CT Rain said:

HRRR coming in hot too with a good bump NW from 18z. Nice start to the 00z suite. 

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yeah, that's the highest clown map I've seen in days

[IowaStorm05]

It’s going to snow. That is a foregone conclusion.

and with the looks of things it is almost guaranteed to be a moderate event 

[SeanInWayland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:33 AM, JC-CT said:

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Wow, that's a revealing graphic. Why on earth is that model doing that?

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:51 AM, SeanInWayland said:

Wow, that's a revealing graphic. Why on earth is that model doing that?

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Jet Streak and spacing influence of the storm to the north and strength of the SLP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:45 AM, Zeus said:

Good luck up there, boys,

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Where are you? YOU are MISSED

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I miss the days of you checking in beers on Untappd . #Eksterpleasebringtheoldlegroback

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I miss them too. But the edibles are more cost effective at the moment. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:41 AM, CT Rain said:

HRRR coming in hot too with a good bump NW from 18z. Nice start to the 00z suite. 

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Please Hanrah , don’t hurt em 

 

[dryslot]

Looks like were gaining some space from today's train wreck with these slower solutions too that looks to be helping matters some.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:54 AM, OceanStWx said:

I miss them too. But the edibles are more cost effective at the moment. 

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And better for you. 

[eduggs]

The HRRR looks like the NWS expected snowfall map from earlier today.

Garden State Parkway to I-95 special. That's a legit storm if it's real.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:50 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

i forgot about that platform , i should use it. I have to get up to treehouse again

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Yeah man . Untappd is hands down the best app ever invented. If you are active on there let me know . Love to see what other IPA peeps like 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats sema on hrrrrrr.