Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[HoarfrostHubb]

C'mon Euro!  Regain your throne (not that it ever really left... just the throne has become tarnished).

That helps a lot

[PhineasC]

18Z Euro had a better curl to the NNE than the latest runs have had. Helped throw more precip north of SNE.

These runs that hit SNE latitude and then head mostly due east really suck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Unreal how 6z 18z have flipped west and 00z 12z have flipped east though, so don't put much stock in that run unless 00z is west as well. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:06 AM, ineedsnow said:

starting to get sampled better? 0z will be telling I think

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It's pretty well sampled at this point, or at least won't be better sampled. But the more it digs tonight the better these runs should get.

[dryslot]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:18 AM, OceanStWx said:

It's pretty well sampled at this point, or at least won't be better sampled. But the more it digs tonight the better these runs should get.

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Who did the map? That actually matches pretty well right now.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:08 AM, ORH_wxman said:

That was a nice move. Usually don’t see much more than that on the euro. 

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I think the Euro will tic even further west at 0z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Solid 6-10 there 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:16 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when you look at soundings, there’s a fairly deep area of lift and it goes into the SGZ…even the ugly solutions have that weenie band early in the storm…I think worst case scenario is prob 2-3” of blower fluff there. But there’s def some upside for higher amounts. 

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It's pretty cool that you can see a weenie band in the 18z EURO QPF progs.  Looks like a finger of mid level fronto that develops on the front side and as the low passes that longitude.

H7 wind flow goes pretty much calm over the zone, which seems weird and maybe I'm not visualizing it correctly.  I'd think there'd be more convergence vs divergence in the wind barbs.

 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:17 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

C'mon Euro!  Regain your throne (not that it ever really left... just the throne has become tarnished).

That helps a lot

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[ineedsnow]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:23 AM, powderfreak said:

It's pretty cool that you can see a weenie band in the 18z EURO QPF progs.  Looks like a finger of mid level fronto that develops on the front side and as the low passes that longitude.

H7 wind flow goes pretty much calm over the zone.

 

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[OceanStWx]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:20 AM, dryslot said:

Who did the map? That actually matches pretty well right now.

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Ekster had this storm so short term could handle the freezing rain.

[bch2014]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:23 AM, powderfreak said:

It's pretty cool that you can see a weenie band in the 18z EURO QPF progs.  Looks like a finger of mid level fronto that develops on the front side and as the low passes that longitude.

H7 wind flow goes pretty much calm over the zone.

 

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Do you have the total precip maps for the entire event?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:14 AM, powderfreak said:

I was thinking 2-5" for Woodstock area, so that fits.  I think there's a low prob of 2" unless snow growth somehow is putrid and would lean more towards 12:1 and 4-5".  Mid-level banding is always the wild card west of the best QPF.

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Yeah that’s why 4-8” covers the whole state. Most towns get 4-6” but if you’re under that band you end up with 8” or so 

[eduggs]

EC with the best looking run in a while. If 0z comes in similar everybody goes to bed happy!

[RI Rob]

A few more bumps west and I'll be bathing in powder. 

[SouthCoastMA]

so 1.26" here on the Euro. That has to be partly rain, correct? 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:28 AM, eduggs said:

EC with the best looking run in a while. If 0z comes in similar everybody goes to bed happy!

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Most of the posters here won’t even be up for the NAM. No reason to when you can see it and the 6z runs at 4:30 when you wake up to run 

[eduggs]

Hmmm, EC a little lighter than it looked at first glance in CT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:29 AM, eduggs said:

Hmmm, EC a little lighter than it looked at first glance in CT.

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Juiced out east while it shaved some out west. That’s how it usually goes inside D2.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:29 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

so 1.26" here on the Euro. That has to be partly rain, correct? 

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Yeah a little bit of that is the rain from this afternoon. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:27 AM, powderfreak said:

Good lick for SE MA.. and up the coastline.  That's a good run of 0.50-0.75" frozen water on the coastal plain up into ME... with locally 0.75-1.00" in SE Mass.

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Does that exclude anything that just fell over the last 6hr here?  Just had 0.66" fall in the last few hours.

[MuddyWx]

this one is just the Jan 7 storm

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:31 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a little bit of that is the rain from this afternoon. 

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Makes sense..it has been pouring here. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:18 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Unreal how 6z 18z have flipped west and 00z 12z have flipped east though, so don't put much stock in that run unless 00z is west as well. 

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Yea. I think this is the left goalpost while 12z is the right. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:36 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I think this is the left goalpost while 12z is the right. 

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Lay down the 12 footer bro . One too many tonite 

[CarverWX]

I will take .8 Please and thank you

[powderfreak]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:33 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Does that exclude anything that just fell over the last 6hr here?  Just had 0.66" fall in the last few hours.

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Ah shit you’re right.  Didn’t realize it was raining down there.  My bad for sure.  I’ll delete other post.  Here’s the snow storm.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:40 AM, powderfreak said:

Ah shit you’re right.  Didn’t realize it was raining down there.  My bad for sure.

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Most of SE SNE precip in winter is non snow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:37 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Lay down the 12 footer bro . One too many tonite 

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At the gym, bong rips come later when the kids go night nite. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/6/2022 at 12:40 AM, powderfreak said:

Ah shit you’re right.  Didn’t realize it was raining down there.  My bad for sure.  I’ll delete other post.  Here’s the snow storm.

 

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Thanks.  No worries.