Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[MJO812]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At a quick glance i thought you said to play with yourself if you don't have any, But i guess not.

Lol. Good catch.

We get so bogged down in microanalysis of an a potential event though that some need to come up for air eventually and just enjoy the event. I’ve been guilty of it myself, in the past. 

[PhineasC]

That's more like it. Another move like that and I am back in the game.

[weathafella]

Long good bye on euro too.  Significantly better!

[JC-CT]

Windshield wipers tbh

[dryslot]

That's going to get a CCB back to the west.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

That's more like it. Another move like that and I am back in the game.

Would like that deeper in the 980’s with mid levels developed

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok cool . Thanks . The 1-2” inch calls for CT are mind boggling 

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do a 12z side by side for weenie comparisons. 

[weathafella]

Looks like RGEM

[moneypitmike]

I'm going to go on a limb and say congrats Jeff and Pit2.

[moneypitmike]

The exciting thing is that we get to see a whole new set of scenarios beginning in two hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm going to go on a limb and say congrats Jeff and Pit2.

How does the snapped limb and ground taste? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

Looks like RGEM

Its pretty much the 6z euro

[ineedsnow]

starting to get sampled better? 0z will be telling I think

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Do a 12z side by side for weenie comparisons. 

 

[CT Rain]

Euro is a great run for E Mass. Better back here but almost marginally.

Also looks like the H7 low closes a bit earlier and tracks pretty close to the south coast. Definitely better. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Its pretty much the 6z euro

Almost identical.

[NeonPeon]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a good spot for this one. 

Newport is almost never in a good spot. It's at best in the worst spot of a good spot.

[ORH_wxman]

That was a nice move. Usually don’t see much more than that on the euro. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

We take

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Newport is almost never in a good spot. It's at best in the worst spot of a good spot.

Yeah sfc temps are almost always a struggle there but even in this one I doubt they’ll be a huge deal. It’s probably be pasty snow there at least for the first half of the storm but it’s plenty cold just off the deck so no real ptype issues. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah sfc temps are almost always a struggle there but even in this one I doubt they’ll be a huge deal. It’s probably be pasty snow there at least for the first half of the storm but it’s plenty cold just off the deck so no real ptype issues. 

Looks like winds go north quickly so I think they’re ok.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Long good bye on euro too.  Significantly better!

Prob snows until dark there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

What do you think of the mid-month window

Hm.   Probably not the place for it.. but it looks like the synoptic super structure of the hemisphere will tip cold at mid latitudes, from Jan 15 ... --> 20th+ ... onward to some open ended distance.  

The other aspect I'm liking is that all ens extended graphics, and the numerical presentations (teleon values) are bouncing the PNA from neutral to positive around 3-5 day periodicity.  No more cellar PNA - the longer term circulation mode of the EAMT --> Pac doesn't really look like it would return.

We can do that with a fast flow, however...  but if the AO/NAO are legit negative, which they appear to be in the time frame, that period gets interesting.  The AO is important WITH the NAO ... Negative NAOs in a fast flow footprint aren't really good for us.  But with AO help, that's probably going to pull the EPO down and things get interesting. 

Of the two 'main' camps... I'd say the GEFs is most representative ... I only see the EPS to D10.  But the EPS doesn't look likely to me. I have to say, I'm not sure what the scoring is the EPS general layouts, but it's been the more unstable of the two for those D8-10 means.   Don't quote me ...

[tavwtby]

48 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Anybody like whiskey? That’s what I got now. Woodford. Great deal on a 200ml down the road. Only bought enough for a few. I had a decent day at work but it was wet and I was outside, and some folks don’t behave the way that I think that they’re supposed to. Sometimes people get really creepy, outdated, and inaccurate. I’m not talkin mean customers. I’m talkin bout weirdos. 
 

And my layers of mental disability, despite my genius, limit me to 25-30 hour workweeks. You say you live to work. That would kill me.

had Woodward on Xmas eve for the first time, excellent and smooth..BIL is a liquor vendor, got a bottle for my 1-3 Fri!

[TalcottWx]

I think south shore cross hair. You would say I'm biased, but looks pretty likely right now. Look out for sneaky good one on Cape if it scoots east. Would be weenie suicide in here. 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Deeper into interior is a tougher call. I do think at least advisory snows are likely due to the weenie banding early in the event…but I’m not sure about later on. My gut is this ticks closer in near the vort and everyone ends up getting more than currently shown, but we’ll see. It’s a hard forecast…if I was forecasting for my old clients in ORH county and Union CT then I’d prob be saying 3-5” but telling them to look for updates as there is more uncertainty than usual with higher amounts possible. 

I was thinking 2-5" for Woodstock area, so that fits.  I think there's a low prob of 2" unless snow growth somehow is putrid and would lean more towards 12:1 and 4-5".  Mid-level banding is always the wild card west of the best QPF.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro is a great run for E Mass. Better back here but almost marginally.

Also looks like the H7 low closes a bit earlier and tracks pretty close to the south coast. Definitely better. 

Yeah, there were some late closures there that were congrats Nova Scotia, but if we can get that going between MTP and CHH it becomes a rosier picture.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I was thinking 2-5" for Woodstock area, so that fits.  I think there's a low prob of 2" unless snow growth somehow is putrid and would lean more towards 12:1 and 4-5".

Yeah when you look at soundings, there’s a fairly deep area of lift and it goes into the SGZ…even the ugly solutions have that weenie band early in the storm…I think worst case scenario is prob 2-3” of blower fluff there. But there’s def some upside for higher amounts.