Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WeatherHappens]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:08 PM, PhineasC said:

For coastal areas. 

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hi

[George001]

Not a fan of the latest european guidance. Hopefully just a blip run

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:11 PM, JC-CT said:

he said 0z

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Yea, my bad.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

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Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is a general 1-3, 2-4….. mainly 1-2” for most 

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How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?  That’s like DIT seeing it and saying 5-10”.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:09 PM, Spanks45 said:

1-3 for most of SNE, 3-5 SE areas...anyone gets under some banding might see 5 or 6 inches but most likely the highest totals in southern Delaware, again...

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Sounds right. Maybe bump it by an inch…as every inch matters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

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Yea, sorry.

[NorEastermass128]

2-5 on the EURO.  I’d take it. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:13 PM, powderfreak said:

How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?

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Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:13 PM, powderfreak said:

How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?

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He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

[JC-CT]

the best qpf is actually on the southeast side of the slp center

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

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I don't think so...ratios should be decent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

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Between TBlizz and DIT numbers, one can derive a pretty accurate snowmap. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Between TBlizz and DIT extremems, one can derive a pretty accurate snowmap. 

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0-12"

[wxsniss]

Blend of 12z NAM/RGEM/EC/UK/CMC supports 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

I like the Box map and think they hold steady this afternoon

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is turning into just enough snow to destroy my Friday commute but not enough to cancel work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so...ratios should be decent.

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This definitely looks like some midlevel goodies...most of us are obviously still rooting for the 0.75-1.00 QPF slamming on Atlantic inflow, but aside from that, it's probably going to be nice snow growth in the ML banding that is consistently being signaled over SNE. Even like a 13 or 14 to 1 ratio will give 4" on a quarter inch qpf...and it's possible ratios are a bit higher inside a decent band.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:15 PM, wxsniss said:

Blend of 12z NAM/RGEM/EC/UK/CMC supports 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

I like the Box map and think they hold steady this afternoon

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btw, OKX already lowered their forecast for southern CT, it just isn't updated on the BOX composite map

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:15 PM, JC-CT said:

0-12"

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Lol right… so you shave off TBlizz’s and DIT’s ranges and it’s dead on. 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

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You think ratios will suck?

[weathafella]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:53 PM, wxsniss said:

Just missed you in the overnight shift, now tuning in for Euro... yeah I posted that the site going down last night was a mercy kill for all the overreacting over 1/5 0z NAM.

Haven't wavered from thoughts since weekend: 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE as a start, and now that we've survived ingest of shortwave sampling in Pac NW, I still anticipate this could trend NW in final 48 hours with potential for higher totals.

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Yeah it would have been fun to have both of us on while the zonked NAM was coming out.  I ended up turning off the light to sleep around 4:15AM.  Got up around 10:45 and decided to get out of bed so I can break this crazy cycle and maybe turn the light off around 3-vs later than 4.  

I think we're good for 6+.

[dryslot]

Technically, We should be comparing 06z and 12z, Those are the two latest runs, But yeah, 12z would be better then 0z, But were going the wrong way at 12z.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:17 PM, powderfreak said:

You think ratios will suck?

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the day when tblizz starts posting soundings...

[PhineasC]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The QPF map ends up looking almost identical to 00z in the end...maybe a little better out west and up north than 00z.

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Yeah precip shield has been expanding north of SNE these last two cycles. 

[Henry's Weather]

Is this a similar storm to the superbowl storm last year, synoptically? Just curious

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:18 PM, dryslot said:

Technically, We should be comparing 06z and 12z, Those are the two latest runs, But yeah, 12z would be better then 0z, But were going the wrong way at 12z.

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my therapist disagrees

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This definitely looks like some midlevel goodies...most of us are obviously still rooting for the 0.75-1.00 QPF slamming on Atlantic inflow, but aside from that, it's probably going to be nice snow growth in the ML banding that is consistently being signaled over SNE. Even like a 13 or 14 to 1 ratio will give 4" on a quarter inch qpf...and it's possible ratios are a bit higher inside a decent band.

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Yea. as disappointed as I am in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect this to underperform snow maps.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 6:19 PM, JC-CT said:

my therapist disagrees

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You may want to stop wasting your money.