Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its just funny that I got bum-rushed yesterday for being "stubborn and arrogant", and now I'm getting push back in the other direction

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You have the confidence/knowledge to put out a well written forecast with backing.        If it fails, you are able to explain why.    Few on here do either of those

[PhineasC]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:53 PM, dryslot said:

If i need more help for this one, You're going to need a whole restaurant staff.

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I’m more interested in the upslope piece now. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am very nervous about at this point. I said all along 12z Wednesday was a pretty big deadline, so I'm not sure why people feel like I am losing my mind. Hopefully it will trend back enough, but I feel like that idea is in peril at this point.

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I think 6-12" not a lock, but doable. At least the eastern third of SNE.  I'd put the odds  around 50/50 for 6"+ or <6" here

[NorEastermass128]

Is this the Accuweather forum all of a sudden?  Folks need to get a grip. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:53 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

You have the confidence/knowledge to put out a well written forecast with backing.        If it fails, you are able to explain why.    Few on here do either of those

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I feel like I have been too trigger happy in the medium range this season.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:50 PM, JC-CT said:

Another one that gives about 6" for BOS.

so as of now, Euro/GGEM/RGEM/Herpes/3km NAM/Uncle are all in that camp.

GFS/12km NAM are in the 1-2" camp.

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So it's American models that are the outliers now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:56 PM, Torch Tiger said:

I think 6-12" not a lock, but doable. At least the eastern third of SNE.  I'd put the odds  around 50/50 for 6"+ or <6" here

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Yea, that sounds reasonable. 

Hopefully more clarity for tomorrow when I write up the final call. There is a method to my madness with respect to when I do these write ups because I am often an emotional basket case in  between

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:55 PM, PhineasC said:

I’m more interested in the upslope piece now. 

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That may be fading as well for you as this low keeps tracking further east of NS, I'm not feeling confident enough that we will get this back into the GOM or even somewhere close.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I have not had time to check in all morning. Should I stick with my C - 2” call for Greenfield? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is actually a very good consensus between the 12z 3km NAM, 06z EURO and 12z GEM.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is actually a very good consensus between the 12z 3km NAM, 06z EURO and 12z GEM.

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You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:01 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I have not had time to check in all morning. Should I stick with my C - 2” call for Greenfield? 

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Gun to head, over.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is actually a very good consensus between the 12z 3km NAM, 06z EURO and 12z GEM.

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I'm down for getting 6-10" of fluff regionwide off of .3-.5" Liquid.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

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Maybe 4-8" east, and 3-6" west is the best call right now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gun to head, over.

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Cool. I was running conservative waiting to see if they were any more shifts east or weakening.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

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HRDPS would be solid if extended past 48 

[PhineasC]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:58 PM, dryslot said:

That may be fading as well for you as this low keeps tracking further east of NS, I'm not feeling confident enough that we will get this back into the GOM or even somewhere close.

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Well, at least E Mass will get snow that they don’t even want. Or it will just rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:12 PM, PhineasC said:

Well, at least E Mass will get snow that they don’t even want. Or it will just rain. 

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I'll take 3-6" or greater...no issue with that.

[WeatherHappens]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:12 PM, PhineasC said:

Well, at least E Mass will get snow that they don’t even want. Or it will just rain. 

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this winter so far that wouldn't surprise me at all

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is actually pretty nice for E MA...BOS def would get warning criteria snowfall on that run.

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Silly question--but one I need to ask now that I've moved.  What do you consider Eastern Mass? Everything east of Worcester County? 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Ray on the BTV WRF.

[WeatherHappens]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:14 PM, moneypitmike said:

Silly question--but one I need to ask now that I've moved.  What do you consider Eastern Mass? Everything east of Worcester County? 

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Boston is a safe guess

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:16 PM, WeatherHappens said:

Boston is a safe guess

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My initial thought was 128 - Cape.  But that's based more on distances than anything else.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Ray on the BTV WRF.

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Haha 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:14 PM, moneypitmike said:

Silly question--but one I need to ask now that I've moved.  What do you consider Eastern Mass? Everything east of Worcester County? 

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maybe like east of 495 up into Nashua and down towards Providence 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:05 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some tried to tell them and got ridiculed. I’m still holding out hope that this tracks bear ack but my original fears are still the biggest worry. 

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It’s all good. We did say a graze is the most likely outcome in a fast and flat flow. Tracking and hedging is fun. I can melt when a really big one busts (which has happened too often the past 8yrs) but other than that, it’s an enjoyable hobby regardless of snow output. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:22 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s all good. We did say a graze is the most likely outcome in a fast and flat flow. Tracking and hedging is fun. I can melt when a really big one busts (which has happened too often the past 8yrs) but other than that, it’s an enjoyable hobby regardless of snow output. 

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The chase is fun especially when it ends up snowy.. Let's hope for some good trends the next 24-36 hours.. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:14 PM, moneypitmike said:

Silly question--but one I need to ask now that I've moved.  What do you consider Eastern Mass? Everything east of Worcester County? 

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I kind of loosely consider it 495-eastward....but it's a subjective term.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:17 PM, moneypitmike said:

My initial thought was 128 - Cape.  But that's based more on distances than anything else.

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  On 1/5/2022 at 5:14 PM, moneypitmike said:

Silly question--but one I need to ask now that I've moved.  What do you consider Eastern Mass? Everything east of Worcester County? 

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CT river on East . West of that is WNE or western areas

[Greg]

  On 1/5/2022 at 5:17 PM, moneypitmike said:

My initial thought was 128 - Cape.  But that's based more on distances than anything else.

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I would generally tell you that around and east of the 495 belt is mostly considered Eastern Mass, anything a little west of that to the Worcester area is considered Central Mass. CT River Valley west is considered Western Mass.