Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good call on this.

good call for something to be basically ots, which is what he said, almost 2 days before go time?  You can't be serious, he's a troll.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.

Right, and that is what I needed to for the widespread 6-12" that I had. I think that ship has sailed. I'm not saying that we still can't get a 3-6" or maybe even a 4-8"
 deal, but my original thoughts are skunked. I'm not saying P Cloudy.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, and that is what I needed to for the widespread 6-12" that I had. I think that ship has sailed. I'm not saying that we still can't get a 3-6" or maybe even 4-8
 deal, but my original thoughts are skunked. I'm not saying P Cloudy.

I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.

[SouthCoastMA]

half of the models are wet here. but not expecting more than 2-3 with the colder models which seem to develop too late

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

good call for something to be basically ots, which is what he said, almost 2 days before go time?  You can't be serious, he's a troll.

I don't remember exactly what he said, I just knew he was in the east crowd.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is a little west of 12z.

No snow for Bermuda?

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

good call for something to be basically ots, which is what he said, almost 2 days before go time?  You can't be serious, he's a troll.

Hard to give credit for random guesses based on the ICON and being butthurt about geography. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.

Well, I am very nervous about at this point. I said all along 12z Wednesday was a pretty big deadline, so I'm not sure why people feel like I am losing my mind. Hopefully it will trend back enough, but I feel like that idea is in peril at this point.

[George001]

For what it’s worth, the navy has been moving NW quite a bit the past couple of runs. I like what I’m seeing from the big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy). My original thoughts have not changed, widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16, as I believe the models are struggling with chasing convection and are placing the low too far se and are too weak with it as a result.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am very nervous about at this point. I said all along 12z Wednesday was a pretty big deadline, so I'm not sure why people feel like I am losing my mind. Hopefully it will trend back enough, but I feel like that idea is in peril at this point.

No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.

[78Blizzard]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sure you originally favored a turn north over the cape as the low bombed....

Didn't he say he was more concerned about p-type issues than a whiff, without mentioning specific areas?

[PhineasC]

LOL the NAVGEM is not “big three.” Unless you mean the three worst models. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The mixing and hugging idea definitely has lost steam over the last 36 hours. However, it wouldn’t take much for this to be a 6-10 system for much of eastern ma 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Hard to give credit for random guesses based on the ICON and being butthurt about geography. 

I think its also important not to become extremely biased against people because then it becomes a pot-kettle-black deal with respect to trolling.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't he say he was more concerned about p-type issues than a whiff, without mentioning specific areas?

Yes.

[moneypitmike]

I'm pretty certain the snowblower will be staying in the garage.  I figure <3 doesn't cut it.

[tiger_deF]

If we get widespread 8-12 we'll need to see models shifting uniformly as we near go time, or they'll have to bust hilariously (which is certainly less common in this day and age)

[IowaStorm05]

“GDPS” is good for a moderate event for the 2/3 of CT favoring points northeast.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't he say he was more concerned about p-type issues than a whiff, without mentioning specific areas?

Yes I said that near dawn yesterday for my area and Tblizz. That wasn't far fetched for the coast. I agree with Will in that a bigger event is not far fetched. That's how I felt since then.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.

Fair enough. We'll see...I have another 24 hours to consider it.

[George001]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

If we get widespread 8-12 we'll need to see models shifting uniformly as we near go time, or they'll have to bust hilariously (which is certainly less common in this day and age)

In my area the Canadian and RGEM are already nearly at the low end of that, if we get a 50 mile tick NW with the low on all guidance that would make a huge difference. That’s what I’m banking on.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

For what it’s worth, the navy has been moving NW quite a bit the past couple of runs. I like what I’m seeing from the big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy). My original thoughts have not changed, widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16, as I believe the models are struggling with chasing convection and are placing the low too far se and are too weak with it as a result.

That settles it I'm going to put out the lawn furniture...

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its also important not to become extremely biased against people because then it becomes a pot-kettle-black deal with respect to trolling.

you've become magnamomous in your old age, while I am trolling the trolls.  Uh oh, I'd better be careful - Pot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its just funny that I got bum-rushed yesterday for being "stubborn and arrogant", and now I'm getting push back in the other direction

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is a little west of 12z.

Ukie is actually pretty nice for E MA...BOS def would get warning criteria snowfall on that run.

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is a little west of 12z.

Another one that gives about 6" for BOS.

so as of now, Euro/GGEM/RGEM/Herpes/3km NAM/Uncle are all in that camp.

GFS/12km NAM are in the 1-2" camp.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

you've become magnamomous in your old age, while I am trolling the trolls.  Uh oh, I'd better be careful - Pot.

Nah, I can be a dick with the best of them, but its just helps to keep an open mind.

[PhineasC]

CMC actually did shift west with the precip. 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

CMC actually did shift west with the precip. 

If i need more help for this one, You're going to need a whole restaurant staff.

[weathafella]

So 12 hours ago it was toast.   6 hours ago yipee.  Now a combination.   Stop waffling with each model run!  The 2 most consistent pieces of guidance over the past few days are RGEM and Euro.  

Also, 3k is worlds apart from 12k today on NAM.  I'm feeling confident mpm uses his snowblower and I get 6+.