Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[MJO812]

Lets go for the worst winter ever

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2022 at 3:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My favorite nuance is the hole of less than 2" over NE MA.

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Why are you upset at all of SNE getting 4-8”? I honestly don’t get it 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2022 at 3:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm not changing my tune at the moment. 

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I hear ya, but getting kind of close to go time and several things working against it 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 3:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hear ya, but getting kind of close to go time and several things working against it 

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I never expected a foot though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

I never expected a foot though. 

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Pretty sure you originally favored a turn north over the cape as the low bombed....

[MJO812]

Some people thought this storm was going to go inland or hug the coast.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sure you originally favored a turn north over the cape as the low bombed....

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Yes, after 6z yesterday I said a track near ACK or the elbow. Obviously that may be tough to accomplish, but on the other hand, I'll take the over on 1-2". If I'm wrong, oh well. It's weather forum. I don't forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 3:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are you upset at all of SNE getting 4-8”? I honestly don’t get it 

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I feel like that scenario is the upper bounds at this point, and that is disappointing to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yes, after 6z yesterday I said a track near ACK or the elbow. Obviously that may be tough to accomplish, but on the other hand, I'll take the over on 1-2". If I'm wrong, oh well. It's weather forum. I don't forecast.

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Yea, probably.

[PhineasC]

I said a couple days ago we would soon be hearing:

"Still a couple inches for the Cape." 

Almost there.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:03 PM, MJO812 said:

Some people thought this storm was going to go inland or hug the coast.

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Some tried to tell them and got ridiculed. I’m still holding out hope that this tracks bear ack but my original fears are still the biggest worry. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, probably.

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For S shore yes

495 , I wouldn’t bet that . Very much up in the air if that area reaches 2”

[PhineasC]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like that scenario is the upper bounds at this point, and that is disappointing to me. 

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IMO a significant west shift will be needed to hit all of SNE with 4-8"

Plenty of time for that still.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Should we have high confidence in models by 0z or ..not so much 

[qg_omega]

It’s going to snow where it’s going to snow, same jackpot as last storm.  Nothing argues for anything different

[MJO812]

Gefs is way east

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:06 PM, PhineasC said:

IMO a significant west shift will be needed to hit all of SNE with 4-8"

Plenty of time for that still.

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This season has been my worst display of medium range forecasting in all 8 years...brutal. Still time for the seasonal to work out decently.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:07 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Should we have high confidence in models by 0z or ..not so much 

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The models keep shifting but IMO the window in which the shifts are occurring is overall sliding east. So even if the GFS suddenly jumps back west it will still be to the east of where most want it.

[JC-CT]

I'm not giving up on a 966mb bomb over the canal until the GEFS does 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:08 PM, MJO812 said:

Gefs is way east

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That is a nail in the coffin for anything exciting in my mind.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:08 PM, qg_omega said:

It’s going to snow where it’s going to snow, same jackpot as last storm.  Nothing argues for anything different

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I mean, the 6z Euro certainly does. Doesn't mean it's right, but..

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For S shore yes

495 , I wouldn’t bet that . Very much up in the air if that area reaches 2”

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 I honestly don't even care...anything less than 4" is an unwelcomed nuisance to me.

[moneypitmike]

Can we establish and enforce a 'no thread sooner than 60 hours before an event? 

[MJO812]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a nail in the coffin for anything exciting in my mind.

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I will give it to 0z but we can't get anything to trend in our favor. Hopefully we will get lucky when the PNA turns positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:11 PM, MJO812 said:

I will give it to 0z but we can't get anything to trend in our favor. Hopefully we will get lucky when the PNA turns positive.

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#phase8only8daysaway

[MJO812]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#phase8only8daysaway

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It has been stuck in 7 for a long time

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/5/2022 at 3:37 PM, dryslot said:

Where would you like it? Models don't even know.

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I think you know where I want it.  And I'm willing to share.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:05 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some tried to tell them and got ridiculed. I’m still holding out hope that this tracks bear ack but my original fears are still the biggest worry. 

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I don't think I have ever ridiculed you, but I think if you are going to put as much time in to this as I do, its important to embrace the consumption of your crow when the situation warrants if you are to salvage any credibility.

Nice call.

[MJO812]

Nice call Seymour Butts

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:12 PM, MJO812 said:

It has been stuck in 7 for a long time

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I was right about that....figures