Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM crushes here 

Great....gee, I wonder where the cut off is...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.

The 06z EURO looked reasonable.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM crushes here 

Padded walls uninstalled again.

[IowaStorm05]

Take it steady as it comes.

you don’t need to eat a beetle 

 

[CoastalWx]

Some of the mesos hit pretty darn good.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.

It's interesting how people in different regions and based on different storms have such a different impression of individual models. People in the NYC, PHL, and MA forums have been praising the RGEM recently for its performance this winter.

I think every model has its day. But it's never black and white. A model might nail one aspect of a storm in one region, but miss something else, somewhere else. No single model is best everywhere, every time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

S shore looks to make out on almost all tracks 

as long as we don’t move 100+ miles NW they look as good as anyone 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the mesos hit pretty darn good.

Congrats on the ARW2.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 06z EURO looked reasonable.

I thought so too, That's why let the others flail around, I want to see the next two mainly GFS/Euro.

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

you could say reggie is not quite as good but it's still decent and pretty similar. it should go without saying, but nobody should be expecting a regionwide 12" storm.

The Reggie did very well at picking up the extended freezing rain this morning. Most models either had very little precip or 33 and rain...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just comparing the 06 and 12z RGEM runs and they're virtually the same.  Maybe a hair less amplified but nothing noteworthy.

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left.

Usually a sign that things are looking dire, IMO.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

S shore looks to make out on almost all tracks 

as long as we don’t move 100+ miles NW they look as good as anyone 

Scooter wins.

The rest of us hope

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just comparing the 06 and 12z RGEM runs and they're virtually the same.  Maybe a hair less amplified but nothing noteworthy.

It's definitely a smidge east with the best goods....but yeah we're parsing really tiny differences. It's definitely has had the lowest run to run variance of any model in the past 24 hours.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's interesting how people in different regions and based on different storms have such a different impression of individual models. People in the NYC, PHL, and MA forums have been praising the RGEM recently for its performance this winter.

I think every model has its day. But it's never black and white. A model might nail one aspect of a storm in one region, but miss something else, somewhere else. No single model is best everywhere, every time.

Correct, Its a little different down there, They praise the Nam as well but when you have lows coming off the coast in the same areas of the MA, I think you have more that would paint the same picture with some small nuances, Once you get up here in latitude, Where some minor changes become bigger issues and spread becomes greater, Example would be if you have a SLP cross 40/70, Where it goes from there will have an adverse effect of seeing precip or no precip, Spoke of this yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Scooter wins.

The rest of us hope

Uncanny how my area is the anti ORH in the sense that I'm never far enough in a given direction....always too far north or south. North early in the year, now south for Monday and Friday. Going to add to the frustration if that comes to fruition.

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The Reggie did very well at picking up the extended freezing rain this morning. Most models either had very little precip or 33 and rain...

True. It signaled it early too. Others were mostly rain until yesterday.

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left.

Right. When's the LFM come out on the DiFax?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

That's what I've been seeing as heights lift out ahead of this.  Allows the storm to amplify and curl left.

[CoastalWx]

I think it is a little early to say who are the "winners"

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's what I've been seeing as heights lift out ahead of this.  Allows the storm to amplify and curl left.

I'm gonna need that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, JC-CT said:

This is your personal prediction?

Right now, yes

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think it is a little early to say who are the "winners"

But easy to see the whiners.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left.

I’ve come to the conclusion, that this year, there is no model that anybody really likes.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Right. When's the LFM come out on the DiFax?

20 mins.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm gonna need that.

For substantial snows >6" , probably. 

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ve come to the conclusion, that this year, there is no model that anybody really likes.

Except for any given model that happens to show the biggest hit

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it is a little early to say who are the "winners"

We've certainly heard from the non winner candidates, ha ha

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

Somewhere. Someone mentioned that track a day or two ago