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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:00 PM, dryslot said:

I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.

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The 06z EURO looked reasonable.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:00 PM, dryslot said:

I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.

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It's interesting how people in different regions and based on different storms have such a different impression of individual models. People in the NYC, PHL, and MA forums have been praising the RGEM recently for its performance this winter.

I think every model has its day. But it's never black and white. A model might nail one aspect of a storm in one region, but miss something else, somewhere else. No single model is best everywhere, every time.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:57 PM, JC-CT said:

you could say reggie is not quite as good but it's still decent and pretty similar. it should go without saying, but nobody should be expecting a regionwide 12" storm.

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The Reggie did very well at picking up the extended freezing rain this morning. Most models either had very little precip or 33 and rain...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/5/2022 at 3:09 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just comparing the 06 and 12z RGEM runs and they're virtually the same.  Maybe a hair less amplified but nothing noteworthy.

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It's definitely a smidge east with the best goods....but yeah we're parsing really tiny differences. It's definitely has had the lowest run to run variance of any model in the past 24 hours.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:07 PM, eduggs said:

It's interesting how people in different regions and based on different storms have such a different impression of individual models. People in the NYC, PHL, and MA forums have been praising the RGEM recently for its performance this winter.

I think every model has its day. But it's never black and white. A model might nail one aspect of a storm in one region, but miss something else, somewhere else. No single model is best everywhere, every time.

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Correct, Its a little different down there, They praise the Nam as well but when you have lows coming off the coast in the same areas of the MA, I think you have more that would paint the same picture with some small nuances, Once you get up here in latitude, Where some minor changes become bigger issues and spread becomes greater, Example would be if you have a SLP cross 40/70, Where it goes from there will have an adverse effect of seeing precip or no precip, Spoke of this yesterday.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/5/2022 at 3:13 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Scooter wins.

The rest of us hope

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Uncanny how my area is the anti ORH in the sense that I'm never far enough in a given direction....always too far north or south. North early in the year, now south for Monday and Friday. Going to add to the frustration if that comes to fruition.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

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That's what I've been seeing as heights lift out ahead of this.  Allows the storm to amplify and curl left.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.

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Somewhere. Someone mentioned that track a day or two ago 

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