Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[IowaStorm05]

This is too much lack of consensus for 48 hours. It means we don’t know what’s going to happen.

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:36 AM, MJO812 said:

Disaster 

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This is working out perfectly. Meltdown from the nam. Everyone Wil be back on the wagon by the gfs ensembles I promise. 

[JC-CT]

[eduggs]

The CMC is west of 12z, but not so much west of 18z.

And if the upper levels on the CMC match the RGEM (can't view them yet), they may actually be less sharp than 18z. Nice run but unlikely to be indicative of a significant trend IMO.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:13 AM, dendrite said:

Hey I still have more hope for this. But the runs verbatim in this suite have sucked so far.

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Okay, now the 00z Euro is the biggest run of our lives. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:17 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

This is too much lack of consensus for 48 hours. It means we don’t know what’s going to happen.

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Welcome to tracking winter storms.

[MJO812]

  On 1/5/2022 at 4:18 AM, eduggs said:

The CMC is west of 12z, but not so much west of 18z.

And if the upper levels on the CMC match the RGEM (can't view them yet), they may actually be less sharp than 18z. Nice run but unlikely to be indicative of a significant trend IMO.

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What's wrong with the cmc ? It's fine.

[ineedsnow]

why does the forum keep going down? Happened a few times the last couple days 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I don’t have access but I’m guessing the Euro wasn’t a good run or i’d see some posts regarding the last run ?

[weathafella]

  On 1/5/2022 at 7:41 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don’t have access but I’m guessing the Euro wasn’t a good run or i’d see some posts regarding the last run ?

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The site was down for 3 hours.  Not much change to me on euro.  Actually looking closer it's a bit east of 18Z.  Not a lot of change.

[weathafella]

NAM (6Z/5) coming in quite a bit more fun.  Too bad I'm the only one up....

[Snowcrazed71]

Actually.. From what i saw .. There was a clear west movement between the 12z run today and 0z tonight. Also the precip shield Also moved west as well.  It's not major, but enough that it is going in the right direction. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/5/2022 at 8:27 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Actually.. From what i saw .. There was a clear west movement between the 12z run today and 0z tonight. Also the precip shield Also moved west as well.  It's not major, but enough that it is going in the right direction. 

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NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs.  You could see it early on.  Let's hope it's real.  Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro...

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/5/2022 at 8:37 AM, weathafella said:

NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs.  You could see it early on.  Let's hope it's real.  Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro...

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Awesome. Looking forward to it. Spoke up for a bit..back to bed myself

[wxsniss]

Site's back... apparently a mercy kill to minimize fretting over 0z GFS/NAM

0z EC ticked west and 6z NAM12k/3k a huge hit, 6-12" much of SNE

Just missed you Jerry!

We appropriately did not overreact to the 0z NAM, and while we can't take 6z NAM verbatim, it at least does not support the concern of improved sampling at 0z.

Differences I see at 6z include a slightly stronger shortwave entering Pac NW and better downstream ridging / less of that scooter streak.

[CoastalWx]

 Nam was a siggy shift. But it’s the nam and shows you how silly it is to live and die by it. Could care less what it shows and people were putting toasters into their bathtubs.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie just east of Chatham 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:22 AM, CoastalWx said:

Reggie just east of Chatham 

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That’s a good spot. 

[CoastalWx]

What a mental mess this place was last night. 

[wxsniss]

Yeah 6z Rgem actually looks like it ticked a hair NW with surface track

Can’t take any of these verbatim but bottomline there was no rug pulled with new data ingested at 0z

[CoastalWx]

Gfs still chasing convection offshore.

[CoastalWx]

That is a very strong s/w on the gfs. That would be rare to drop meager amounts of qpf even with that moisture well offshore. 

[wxsniss]

Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

[Modfan2]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:00 AM, CoastalWx said:

That is a very strong s/w on the gfs. That would be rare to drop meager amounts of qpf even with that moisture well offshore. 

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Box looks to be conservative for now, probably seeing if west trends continue today. Your in a good spot 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice look to mesos this morning.  Stout and straight up. We snow

[amc]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:05 AM, wxsniss said:

Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

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GYX isn't much better, widespread 2-4. We'll see how this westward trend goes

[Damage In Tolland]

WSW’s will go up regionwide in SNE with PM package .

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:39 AM, CoastalWx said:

What a mental mess this place was last night. 

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Looks like Ray left 

[MJO812]

Rgem is tucked in because its not going chasing the convection to the east like it did with the last run.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Glad I went to bed early last night…I just got caught up reading like 3 pages melting down about the 00z NAM. Some of you need to go back to spring training…lol. 
 

Luke wins the prize for best prediction by saying the the 06z NAM would come in zonked. 
 

Looking at other guidance, I really like the strength of the shortwave. The 06z suite is coming in strong with it. Hopefully euro follows in a bit.