Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[IowaStorm05]

Well even the 3km NAM shows a plowable.

its like having side curtain airbags and being Tboned at 37mph. It’s much better with than without.

So then my question to you is…. What do you know about the 00z suites so far that can help you decide what you can toss?

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was being sarcastic, but its definitely the NAM's Canadian cousin.

So, Do you wipe first with the RGEM or the Nam?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because we had a ton of winters where we got buried. Time to pay up. 

I don't think I have five consecutive stinkers on record...would be something if this year and next year blow. Not even the 80s or 50s pulled that off. 

[JC-CT]

did we factor this in?

[eduggs]

Sneaky inch tomorrow morning somewhere in WMA or NH?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

So, Do you wipe first with the RGEM or the Nam?

NAM...I use the RGEM to touch up the dingle berry stragglers that hang on for dear life.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

When the Euro ticks further west from 18z, some will wonder what all the fuss was about with the NAM, a lousy model.

Those European are ahead of us time wise.   ha ha

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was being sarcastic, but its definitely the NAM's Canadian cousin.

Sorrey aboot all that snow I dumped on you last run, eh.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was being sarcastic, but its definitely the NAM's Canadian cousin.

Oh yeah, I don't trust it, but sometimes it sniffs out some amped solutions like the NAM does from time to time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Oh yeah, I don't trust it, but sometimes it sniffs out some amped solutions like the NAM does from time to time.

Yep.

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So far NAM is disappointing.  The next model to pay attention to is gfs.  Yes RGEM but it has sucked for years.  We look at ICON because it’s early and I’m guilty but does it have any value?   So let’s see what gfs says in 20-30 minutes.

I like the RGEM a lot. Definitely in the top 3 at 48 hours. The ICON is useful for trends. I wish they would release a hi-res version of the ICON like they have in Europe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I like the RGEM a lot. Definitely in the top 3 at 48 hours. The ICON is useful for trends. I wish they would release a hi-res version of the ICON like they have in Europe.

I think it's a preemptive defense mechanism to shit on the only hand that is feeding us right now

[IowaStorm05]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

did we factor this in?

Oh yes of course. That one.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's a preemptive defense mechanism to shit on the only hand that is feeding us right now

Seeing most of it was used up on the Nam, Agree

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Oh yeah, I don't trust it, but sometimes it sniffs out some amped solutions like the NAM does from time to time.

You would've loved the SREFs and the ARW family back in the day up here.

[dryslot]

This is the time frame on the GFS upgrade where it saw some improvement and outscores the Euro, I guess we shall see.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You would've loved the SREFs and the ARW family back in the day up here.

Yes he would've, They use to crush on some of these.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

How’s my BTV WRF

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How’s my BTV WRF

if it still does the google maps overlay, it's still a winner.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

There will be a bevy of arrests tonight if the rest of 0z doesn’t deliver.

[8611Blizz]

Personal freedoms curtailed?

 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There will be a bevy of arrests tonight if the rest of 0z doesn’t deliver.

More like, 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

More like, 

The last thing I want is a 1-3" consolation reach around from mother nature....if I can't get a half decent storm, just save me the gridlock on the commute. I don't want status quo...either trend better, or c-ya.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

More like, 

Ant needs snow now. For the safety of all nyc citizens…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The last thing I want is a 1-3" consolation reach around from mother nature....if I can't get a half decent storm, just save me the gridlock on the commute.

Scooter gets a tingle in his shorts from 1-2” ... 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The last thing I want is a 1-3" consolation reach around from mother nature....if I can't get a half decent storm, just save me the gridlock on the commute.

This… I am so far out on a meager event it’s not even funny. The novelty of a 1-3” snowfall wears off after like late a November. If it isn’t going to snow enough to get me a day off Friday, spare me.

[dryslot]

0z GFS is a couple tics west of the 18z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe a hair more ridging out west at hr 45?

[bristolri_wx]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is the time frame on the GFS upgrade where it saw some improvement and outscores the Euro, I guess we shall see.

The GFS and the FV3 Hi-Res were garbage on yesterday's "storm".  Yes new storm new analysis, but if it's a pattern related issue, then it may not be as trustworthy as we would like.

[8611Blizz]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scooter gets a tingle in his shorts from 1-2” ... 

i think scooter is hoping to make his little one happy.