Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,792
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clintjasonwx
    Newest Member
    clintjasonwx
    Joined

Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

Posted Images

eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:42 AM, JC-CT said:

I can discard a single run of the NAM, absolutely - watch me. When the 0z suite is over, if it is lending support to one or more globals, then I'll bring it into the fold. By itself, it's not relevant. I've seen it be on NAM island more times than I can remember.

Expand  

From a forecasting perspective, discarding individual models runs - without obvious cause - will lead to forecast bias. From a hobbyist perspective, it will lead to false expectations and disappointment. We've seen it a million times. 

If it's an outlier run, is it unreliable or the first to sniff out a trend? Without knowing the final outcome we cannot know which model runs to consider or discard. That's why it's best to consider all the major model outcomes as plausible and deal in probabilities, not absolutes.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:54 AM, eduggs said:

From a forecasting perspective, discarding individual models runs - without obvious cause - will lead to forecast bias. From a hobbyist perspective, it will lead to false expectations and disappointment. We've seen it a million times. 

If it's an outlier run, is it unreliable or the first to sniff out a trend? Without knowing the final outcome we cannot know which model runs to consider or discard. That's why it's best to consider all the major model outcomes as plausible and deal in probabilities, not absolutes.

Expand  

the obvious cause it that it's the NAM, and it's not reliable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:47 AM, dryslot said:

EPS 51 - Nam 1, If your scoring at home.

Expand  

EPS didn't do so great for the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm from 48 hours out. It was 40 miles too far NW with accumulating snow. The NAM correctly kept the meaningful precipitation further south. All of the major models lead the pack for some events and on some runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:54 AM, eduggs said:

From a forecasting perspective, discarding individual models runs - without obvious cause - will lead to forecast bias. From a hobbyist perspective, it will lead to false expectations and disappointment. We've seen it a million times. 

If it's an outlier run, is it unreliable or the first to sniff out a trend? Without knowing the final outcome we cannot know which model runs to consider or discard. That's why it's best to consider all the major model outcomes as plausible and deal in probabilities, not absolutes.

Expand  

That's assuming the NAM is considered a major model.  I don't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:58 AM, dryslot said:

Some really need to stop posting, There mouth is out running their brain like that convective blob out ahead of the surface low.

Expand  

What’s the problem with the convective blob? Does it cause subsidence or something or otherwise pull energy out of our system from its adjacency and weight?

And it is an ugly and lame blob as far as convection goes. Not exactly a forerunner of a tropical development lmao.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:59 AM, eduggs said:

EPS didn't do so great for the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm from 48 hours out. It was 40 miles too far NW with accumulating snow. The NAM correctly kept the meaningful precipitation further south. All of the major models lead the pack for some events and on some runs.

Expand  

it certainly kept it south, all right

namconus_ref_frzn_us_39.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:59 AM, eduggs said:

EPS didn't do so great for the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm from 48 hours out. It was 40 miles too far NW with accumulating snow. The NAM correctly kept the meaningful precipitation further south. All of the major models lead the pack for some events and on some runs.

Expand  

In general, I don't think any one model has performed very well inside 72 hrs on any event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 3:00 AM, 78Blizzard said:

That's assuming the NAM is considered a major model.  I don't.

Expand  

I think it's significant that the NAM has decreased the sharpness and amplitude of the 500mb trof for several successive runs today. That's doesn't mean I can predict the future or change your mind if you disagree. It's just an opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...