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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:30 AM, JC-CT said:

yeah not going to lie, it looks terrible. but also, it's not (yet) hugely relevant

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It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2022 at 2:40 AM, eduggs said:

It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

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I can discard a single run of the NAM, absolutely - watch me. When the 0z suite is over, if it is lending support to one or more globals, then I'll bring it into the fold. By itself, it's not relevant. I've seen it be on NAM island more times than I can remember.

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George001

George001

Posted
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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:40 AM, eduggs said:

It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

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I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted.

 

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:41 AM, Cmass495 said:

Screenshot_1.png

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disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model! 

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George001

George001

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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:43 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

Well it looked bad today on some Euro ensembles or something like that I saw those. There’s definitely something in the mix that threatens this outcome entirely.

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The eps came west last run, but it’s important to note there were 2 camps, 1 was the stronger solutions with a farther west track (mixing would be the concern) and another with father east, weaker solutions (low strength would be the concern).

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:42 AM, George001 said:

I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted.

 

disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model! 

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There is pretty decent snows shown on that run to PHL or so due to the s/w but ultimately the transfer or evolutionary process of the coastal is jacked...that could be due to extremely fast flow or many factors but its probably the extreme end of the worst case scenario of how a s/w that good could fail for places PHL on North and east

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:37 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

I mean that looks really bad. And this was what some people said was an important reveal? 
 

It gives me about an inch. A light inch. 

It doesn’t just look weaker. It looks dead. Trustworthy or not I don’t like that. And it’s not the first time today something hinted at super weak. I saw those ensembles.

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Thats what she said...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:45 AM, JC-CT said:

and the NAM has? I love the NAM, because weenie reasons, but you gotta love it for what it is and not try to change it into the perfect girlfriend I mean weather model.

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The NAM is always unpredictable as to when its handling an event well or not...often times when from 48 or beyond it continually shows the same thing over and over its onto something...that theory failed a few days ago though when up until 30 hours out it was the only model missing the MA by 200 miles consistently.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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  On 1/5/2022 at 2:37 AM, 78Blizzard said:

The problem looked to be that convection off NC forming another low further out.

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The surface isn't the problem. Weather isn't generated at the surface. Ls and Hs don't do anything - they have no causal effect. They form and evolve in response to what happens in the upper levels.

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