Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[wxsniss]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:16 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. 

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Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics.

Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west.

Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:30 AM, CT Rain said:

Wouldn't it be amazing if Kevin changed to rain after all?

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Kevin and all of “ct rains” while MJO is pounding 2” per hour 

[RDRY]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:25 AM, dryslot said:

Yeah, So far, That convection is there, It keeps showing up, But i did notice it looked weaker and east on the OP at 18z from the 12z run, And the SLP heading off the Carolina coast wasn't as influenced by it as it moved north, I think that can still get overcome going forward.

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Seems like this scenario is in play almost every coastal. The biggest cause of model mayhem.

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:42 AM, RDRY said:

Seems like this scenario is in play almost every coastal. The biggest cause of model mayhem.

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And some models are more sensitive to it then others, The higher res models for example is when you can get feedback issues.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:37 AM, wxsniss said:

Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics.

Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west.

Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles.

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Couldn't agree more. 

[moneypitmike]

The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off.   Get excited.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:56 AM, moneypitmike said:

The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off.   Get excited.

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I was wondering if someone was going to use that worn out cliche. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:05 AM, ORH_wxman said:

 

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And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days 

[Dan76]

  On 1/5/2022 at 1:56 AM, moneypitmike said:

The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off.   Get excited.

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PBP?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:00 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days 

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I think this at least partially has something to do with the dueling lows structure...some have the main low dominant, a few have the leading vort take over, and some "melt" them together? I'm literally making stuff up here.

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s intriguing 

higher res model clusters, cross-guidance to boot. moving west and more intense, en masse. 
 

mm

[IowaStorm05]

I get minutes of delay behind when you guys get model data because I use Pivotal. I know it’s not the best but I’ve been using it for 5 years it’s what I know. I don’t use it in the summer, and I don’t come here in the summer either. Summer weather is a different vibe when it comes to forecasts and the like. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:03 AM, Dan76 said:

PBP?

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hmmm

[powderfreak]

I kind of like the 18z EURO Kuchie map for some reason.

A widespread 3-6" with locally 6-8" is just what this forum needs.  It'll be interesting to see the snow growth potential the next couple of days.  Ratios always matter... small flake vs deform dendrites.  Kuchie runs fluffy when its cold.

 

[dendrite]

I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:18 AM, dendrite said:

I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. 

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phrasing

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:18 AM, dendrite said:

I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. 

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Its compressing the flow a bit downstream.

[greenmtnwx]

Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start. 

[CT Rain]

Looks like a great scooter sh*t streak

[JC-CT]

NAM with less wattage. Sad.

[WeatherHappens]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:24 AM, greenmtnwx said:

Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start. 

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game over man, game over

[Greg]

I'm on Hr 48 of the 0Z NAM right now.

[dryslot]

The Nam at this lead shouldn't influence anyone's thinking TBH.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:25 AM, CT Rain said:

Looks like a great scooter sh*t streak

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That’s exactly what that is haha.

[weathafella]

Shit streak may be lifting out in time?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:27 AM, dryslot said:

The Nam at this lead shouldn't influence anyone's thinking TBH.

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never, ever, ever, has the NAM lead a cycle and completely thrown off the weenies

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks entirely less impressive at 48

[greenmtnwx]

Just brutal. 

[moneypitmike]

It may be getting it's act together.....not to be denied.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 2:28 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks entirely less impressive at 48

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yeah not going to lie, it looks terrible. but also, it's not (yet) hugely relevant