Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They just don’t know. 

It's a numbers game. If BOS pulls 3" a week in the heart of winter it's virtually impossible for them to have a below average snowfall season.

[A Moonlit Sky]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

While I agree on the last part, the times I do go into the office…the traffic has not changed much. There are too many companies stuck in the old ways.

You get the traffic you build for and we've built for nothing but cars. WFH isn't going to change all that much given our land use patterns. This further ignores the spatial aspect of work. WFH isn't going to become the norm because work doesn't happen this way optimally. It's why cities exist.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps  has some big members near the coast

West 

Tuck it!

[moneypitmike]

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Does this count as Thursday?

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Does this count as Thursday?

Yes, if you’re still up drinking. 

[CoastalWx]

EPS juiced up again.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Does this count as Thursday?

It’s into CT well before midnite . And you’re still reading a P and C in 2022

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS juiced up again.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps  has some big members near the coast

West 

Hr66 would be pretty nice for us on those west members. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

33 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

You cannot be serious

Serious this 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s into CT well before midnite . And you’re still reading a P and C in 2022

Thursday night and Friday...

The main concern with this forecast package revolves around very
late Thursday night into Friday. We have high confidence that
accumulating snow will impact the region and likely Friday morning
commute as well. However, the amounts and westward extent of the
heavier QPF field remain uncertain at this point. We will break
things down a bit more below.

A pretty impressive shortwave across the Ohio Valley on Thursday
will move eastward into New England very late Thu night into Fri.
This will back the 700 mb flow and induce modest mid level
frontogenesis. Specific timing is uncertain given the time range,
but expect snow to overspread the region from southwest to northeast
after midnight. It will probably be snowing in most locations by
daybreak.

[Heat Miser]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

75% of people now either work from home full time or 3-4 days a week .

Source? I've seen 45% in recent months, which means a significant number of people are still being impacted by a storm like this.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Thursday night and Friday...

The main concern with this forecast package revolves around very
late Thursday night into Friday. We have high confidence that
accumulating snow will impact the region and likely Friday morning
commute as well. However, the amounts and westward extent of the
heavier QPF field remain uncertain at this point. We will break
things down a bit more below.

A pretty impressive shortwave across the Ohio Valley on Thursday
will move eastward into New England very late Thu night into Fri.
This will back the 700 mb flow and induce modest mid level
frontogenesis. Specific timing is uncertain given the time range,
but expect snow to overspread the region from southwest to northeast
after midnight. It will probably be snowing in most locations by
daybreak.

You’re still making your forecast off an AFD in 2022? 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Does this count as Thursday?

The way our grids our broken up this is Thursday night. The nights run 6 pm to 6 am. So 4 am technically sneaks into Thursday night.

[leo2000]

I think this storm could be a whopper of a Blizzard two feet of snow possible. 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re still making your forecast off an AFD in 2022? 

LOL--you slay me.

[George001]

33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He grew up with 3-6 being a ratter.  Many people here have

The guidance looked good for 6-12 with potential for more if things broke right a couple days ago, nothing wrong with 3-6 but when taking into account how good things looked a couple days ago it would be a bit of a let down. For me it’s all about expectations, if I’m expecting 1-2 and get 3-6 I’m very happy with it, if I expect 6-12 and get 3-6 it’s a big disappointment. I am holding out hope that it comes back west. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Heat Miser said:

Source? I've seen 45% in recent months, which means a significant number of people are still being impacted by a storm like this.

Link to your source? 

[Heat Miser]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Link to your source? 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/355907/remote-work-persisting-trending-permanent.aspx

I spend the majority of my time WFH, but on the staggered days I need to be in the office, we require an order from the governor to stay home for weather.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

That’s a nice change. 

[dryslot]

Looks like there's still a few holdout members to the east on that 18z EPS but a lot fewer of them with a heavy cluster on the mean and to the west.

[bristolri_wx]

A 3-6” event would be great. Not every storm needs to be a 12”+ event. Also, anecdotally, I feel like the mechanics required for 3-6” and 4-8” events are much easier to get widespread across most and/or all of New England, including the South Coast. Often the most amplified solutions have mixing issues or miss a chunk of the region.

Even in the “holy grail” season of 2014-2015, my neck of the woods only had about 60” of snow. While most portions other portions of New England were at 100” or more especially eastern areas.

Let’s get the ball rolling here and hope for warning level snows and go from there!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like there's still a few holdout members to the east on that 18z EPS but a lot fewer of them with a heavy cluster on the mean and to the west.

Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. 

[Hoth]

Liking a 1/12/11 track over the elbow still.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. 

Yeah, So far, That convection is there, It keeps showing up, But i did notice it looked weaker and east on the OP at 18z from the 12z run, And the SLP heading off the Carolina coast wasn't as influenced by it as it moved north, I think that can still get overcome going forward.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/355907/remote-work-persisting-trending-permanent.aspx

I spend the majority of my time WFH, but on the staggered days I need to be in the office, we require an order from the governor to stay home for weather.

DIT fell asleep drunk again as did his ‘source’ you asked for.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very few people drive or commute to work anymore . It’s a new era. 75% of people now either work from home full time or 3-4 days a week . So the commuting issues are in large part over.  Unless you’re an essential employee. And if you happen to be in that minority where you work for a company or role that you can do from home , but they are forcing you to come in everyday. Get out 

Depends...I'm a social worker...I need to see people. Judging from the traffic on I93, alot more than 25 percent still commute in.

[CT Rain]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. 

Wouldn't it be amazing if Kevin changed to rain after all?

[tavwtby]

17 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Source? I've seen 45% in recent months, which means a significant number of people are still being impacted by a storm like this.

the wfh crowd, at least in my job, could have been doing it all along, and in my opinion the worst thing that could have happened, now they get to work with nobody watching what they do, and they take advantage, I think the only time I've not gone to work in snow was 93, and that was because they shut down... my job requires hands on, and I love going to work, despite travel, was it 12/07 that got us stuck for hours on 84? 3-6 shouldn't be a big deal for a commute especially when they put the treatment down ahead of time

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wouldn't it be amazing if Kevin changed to rain after all?

That’s the silver lining if we all get screwed.