Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[weathafella]

GFS chased that convective blob it seem?

[dryslot]

No good, Worse then 12z, Seems to get its act together later on today's runs over NS

[ineedsnow]

GFS 

[George001]

My forecast:

8–12 in all of eastern mass with an isolated 12-15 in heaviest banding. The higher end will probably be NW up into central and northern Mass, lower end in my area. In my opinion the models are underestimating the strength of the low.

[The 4 Seasons]

Not sure if this was posted but OKX first maps (for the whole event). Seems bullish for them but within reason.

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2022 at 9:58 PM, dryslot said:

No good, Worse then 12z

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A shitty and good model 2, 2 shitty models 2.  Euro weighs in in 2 hours to lean one way or the other.

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2022 at 9:58 PM, ineedsnow said:

GFS 

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Weird lows off the coast

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 8:55 PM, JC-CT said:

reluctant because...?

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Out of date anti virus

[78Blizzard]

When the GFS jacks ACK, you know it's not good.  And I use jack lightly.

[The 4 Seasons]

Not really surprised by 18Z GFS or any other model. More interested in the 00Z/12Z 05 suite when new upper air data has been sampled thats coming on shore.

Tomorrows 12Z will be important. Off hour op runs right now mean very little to me.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/4/2022 at 9:58 PM, dryslot said:

No good, Worse then 12z, Seems to get its act together later on today's runs over NS

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LBNE?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:06 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

LBNE?

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LBN

Load Blown Nowhere.

[CoastalWx]

Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. 

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you'll get 0.1 and like it

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is very Far East…. Nobody is hitting warning criteria with that look.

[CarverWX]

Not bad from NWS.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 9:58 PM, ineedsnow said:

GFS 

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Cringe worthy for my 'hood.  Hopefully we see it tug bag W at 0z. 

[greenmtnwx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 9:59 PM, weathafella said:

A shitty and good model 2, 2 shitty models 2.  Euro weighs in in 2 hours to lean one way or the other.

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Been an ugly 36 hours 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. 

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I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing.

[WxWatcher007]

Say nothing of the fact that snow maps don’t mean much especially at range, I don’t know why anyone would have been setting their bar 4 days out when it’s well documented this season that each model has struggled resolving critical (and sometimes basic) details.

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing.

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24 hours ago gfs was a clean whiff.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:22 PM, weathafella said:

24 hours ago gfs was a clean whiff.

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fact check: TRUE

[HoarfrostHubb]

Harv going 3-6” for eastern MA as far as ORH, all of RI, eastern CT and SE Mass.  1-3 out my way.  That seems reasonable right now

[JC-CT]

People keep complaining and mama nature going to give you the nogaps open wave.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:14 PM, CarverWX said:

Not bad from NWS.

 

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Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK.  Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area.  Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario.  The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing.

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It was a whiff 24 hrs ago. Taste the 80s and 3-6" events. For Christ sake. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:28 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK.  Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area.  Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario.  The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK.

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Well at 60 hours out it seems like a reasonable heads up.  Plenty of time to tweak.

[Typhoon Tip]

Epic back of moon visibility right now...  I think that's conjunction with Mars too -

 

Isn't there a wives tail about beware the back of moon portends the winter doom ? ...should be

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:24 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv going 3-6” for eastern MA as far as ORH, all of RI, eastern CT and SE Mass.  1-3 out my way.  That seems reasonable right now

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Yesterday my tongue in cheek call for here was C - 1” so Harvey’s forecast isn’t too far from that.  Lol
Yes, I know that’s a  pessimistic call for this area but I am pretty far northwest, so I can’t afford any trend East overnight. 
I was really hoping to pull at least 2”-4” from this storm so hopefully we get the tug West tonight.  

[eduggs]

Yesterday's mid-Atlantic snowstorm had a ton of GOM moisture out ahead of the trof just pumping northward into a wall of cold air. We won't really have that luxury with this one. Here we need to rely on the dynamics of a rapidly deepening SLP and moist easterly inflow. The main precipitation shield is not likely to extend very far NW unless this really wraps up.