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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:26 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s  have an All SNE throw down for the snow capital this year ala Cobra Kai (I’m watching now) 

Me Kevin Runnaway and the wolf man can represent CT (miyagi do)

Ray Scott and Will Can be NE Mass (cobra Kai) 

And Taunton George and the SE crew can be Eagle Fang 

Winner gets all the jacks this year.

If you haven’t watched this season if Cobra Kai you probably have no idea what I’m talking about lol 

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I’m down . Are they all down with OPP?

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - ...this new NAM solution is shortening the wave spacing between the eastern Lakes S/W in the nearer term, wrt to the S/W responsible for the 7th.

It also appears to be bringing the latter eastward on a shallower trajectory -

These are not encouraging signs for those wanting to see amplitude.

But,... NAM outside of 48 hours. 

We are still just now in process of modulating the SPV over the NE Pac...and so it's still not completely in the realized/physical soundings yet, ...so these may be less important observations at this particular time.

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I think @Allsnowmade that same observation....not good. Damn mid atl event is slowing...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:40 PM, weathafella said:

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured I was whacked.....

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It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

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there's no "OTS" with that trough orientation 

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:44 PM, eduggs said:

Maybe some were fooled by the earlier arrival? The 18z looked pretty clearly less impressive aloft to me.

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Hence my tough early-season induced snow goggle comments. It is worse and has been trending that way from west to east the last day and a half. But we are all desperate, even the pros. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah... the shallower ejection just means it isn't getting as much feed-back from outside --> in, with it's physical nesting in the flow.

The S/W itself appears to have the same wind flag velocities.   Again ...it hasn't changed - the larger influential sensitivity with this ,the ridge immediately behind needs to balloon more like it did in the overnight runs and keep going ( if you want bigger drama   heh ).

 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

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Maybe it goes negative earlier in time, but it doesn't look like it does so earlier in geographic location. I don't care if it does negative tomorrow if it does so in Nova Scotia.

I don't hate the look, I just liked previous runs much better.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:53 PM, eduggs said:

Maybe it goes negative earlier in time, but it doesn't look like it does so earlier in geographic location. I don't care if it does negative tomorrow if it does so in Nova Scotia.

I don't hate the look, I just liked previous runs much better.

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No argument 12z looked better.

My gut still says this comes back some though.

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