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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:41 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw the same, way too many meager members at this lead time. Looks like the gfs may have had the right idea all along of more a grazer, reeling the euro in from it’s zonked hugger and interior crusher idea.

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Neither the Euro or the GFS has covered itself in glory thus far.

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm obviously nervous and can see how this can end up a nuisance...but more often than not, the wild convective goose changes end up more fact than fiction. Maybe it will work out like that this time....we should know in just under 24 hours, maybe even tonight.

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Wavering? Don’t tell me the December call that went up in flames has you needing to push all your chips to the middle with pocket 6s? It’s still a little early, maybe just try to build your stack back up. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:46 PM, weathafella said:

I think we are all biased by our location.   I’m 10 miles SW of BOS so obviously I look at it differently.

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As is, the mid level snows are near I95.......I don't think a 75-100mi correction west if that vort gets sampled stronger is a particularly tall task.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:48 PM, greenmtnwx said:

Wavering? Don’t tell me the December call that went up in flames has you needing to push all your chips to the middle with pocket 6s? It’s still a little early, maybe just try to build your stack back up. 

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It has nothing to do with that. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything....I don't control the weather.

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has nothing to do with that. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.

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It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:52 PM, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

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I just made a first call 2 hours ago, and explicitly stated that I was nervous about it and hedging....how should I have conveyed it to sound less arrogant?

What call was I arrogant about and refused to change? If this looks like shit tmw AM, my mind will change.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Regardless of any actual trends in the height field or vortmax, I do think the storm circulation will end up tucked a bit closer to the max PVA than some of these runs show. If you get your conveyor all mucked up chasing convection, then you'll have some uglier looking solutions that may or may not be model phantoms. Sometimes the convection is correct...but I'd be leery of it, especially on hyrdostatic model guidance.

That said, there are multiple other factors such as the heights in SE Canada which are important for ridging downstream of the shortwave and of course, the shortwave itself. Then you have the western ridge too as Tip and Chris have already discussed a few times.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:52 PM, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

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You need to get out more and interact and not be socially inept like this. It’s simply not healthy 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:52 PM, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

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Would you be extending that to the other very experienced New England meteorologists who are also on the side of something closer more tucked, more significant etc.?  or are you just saying that to a guy who is educated and informed but doesn’t do this for a living?

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Drama In Tolland?

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Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole. 

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 7:59 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Would you be extending that to the other very experienced New England meteorologists who are also on the side of something closer more tucked, more significant etc.?  or are you just saying that to a guy who is educated and informed but doesn’t do this for a living?

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As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist. Although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 8:03 PM, greenmtnwx said:

As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist, although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature. 

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I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said. 

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