Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dendrite]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Are you thinking 30:1 ratios?

jspin is going to pull 15" off of 0.05" in the upslope.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Just gotta curl that vortmax in more like previous runs. It looks like it wants to and then it just keeps pushing east.

This isn't our first rodeo...we know how it goes inside of 72hr. That's why I can't post very seriously in that 3+ day range. If it trends in our favor...great. If not, oh well. There will be others.

Today's runs look like they want to chase that convection to the east, Euro was even moreso.

[Damage In Tolland]

I honestly cannot believe the folks thinking whiff lol. We are 2.5 days from start time. 

Here’s a hint SE ridge 

What did the Euro do with DC storm? How’d that turn out? 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If this trends any later with development/closing off its NBD for most 

sugar coat that however it tickles your ween

That’s the key. Advisory level stuff unless you get clipped by the ccb. 
Many haven’t even had a 1” snowfall yet though so just covering the grass with advisory snows would be thrilling.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

jspin is going to pull 15" off of 0.05" in the upslope.

No bamboo damage there.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3-6” max zone there…. The tics east can stop

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know lol. But the Flemish Cap.

It's pretty damned potent vortmax. Unless it weakens a decent amount, my guess is future guidance starts reacting to it by tucking this thing closer to the PVA.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly cannot believe the folks thinking whiff lol. We are 2.5 days from start time. 

Here’s a hint SE ridge 

What did the Euro do with DC storm? How’d that turn out? 

 

You’re worried, and should be with the trends at 12z

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say watch that srn streamer of vorticity. That is what excites a little low with the convection SE of HSE. That is playing a role. But if that main s/w is stronger, it won't matter much.

this

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly cannot believe the folks thinking whiff lol. We are 2.5 days from start time. 

Here’s a hint SE ridge 

What did the Euro do with DC storm? How’d that turn out? 

 

Weird that this annoying lp system is forming right on top of a ridge

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly cannot believe the folks thinking whiff lol. We are 2.5 days from start time. 

Here’s a hint SE ridge 

What did the Euro do with DC storm? How’d that turn out? 

 

But.... there's no SE ridge 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

But.... there's no SE ridge 

there would be if you would just believe

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’re worried, and should be with the trends at 12z

Worried? I think my area is going to be in a great spot and I think warning snows get well back into E NY state 

I am worried about rain for you . Yes 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

But.... there's no SE ridge 

Umm look again. It’s Omni present . Of course there is 

[CoastalWx]

All gone by midnight Monday?

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Today's runs look like they want to chase that convection to the east, Euro was even moreso.

You don't even have to look at the surface to see that guidance has shifted everything east. Look at H5 - best PVA is SE. The surface is just a reflection of the upper level divergence/convergence.

Good thing is that if this sharpens up 10 %, the SLP ends up 100 miles NW. There will be plenty more changes.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All gone by midnight Monday?

Don't take my inch away! lol Guidance has been flip flopping if we get warm Sunday/Monday before the real cold moves in.  GFS stays in 30s for most Sunday/Monday Euro a bit warmer.

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z you should see some changes, But yeah, 12z tomorrow we will have some goalpost setting i think, That's where i have been at.

Like this?

 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

 

That's all you need to see. No question this will be much further west than last system. 

Expect big changes in model runs tonight or tomorrow.

[tunafish]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly cannot believe the folks thinking whiff lol. We are 2.5 days from start time. 

 

So you've finally come around to a Friday early morning start time?  Welcome.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

 

I'd like to see more short wave ridging rollin' up out ahead of that trough nadir, but the vort track its self is climo on point.

Someone mentioned the scant QPF NW of the low - I'd be willing suggest not having that ridge rollout is part of that problem, because we end up with a weaker wrap around elevate warm conveyor ...the one up at 700- 600 mb/trowal

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

It's not you.

- Nova Scotia

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You don't even have to look at the surface to see that guidance has shifted everything east. Look at H5 - best PVA is SE. The surface is just a reflection of the upper level divergence/convergence.

Good thing is that if this sharpens up 10 %, the SLP ends up 100 miles NW. There will be plenty more changes.

The whole trough is further east @H5 then 06z, Whose disputing that? Of course at the surface it will be east as well, But that blob off the coast is playing a roll in it too if the s/w is weaker then modeled, If not, It won't matter.

[SnowGiant611]

It's either going to snow, or it won't.

What makes this all the more exciting is the potential for drastic model shifts inside 48hrs, which are not all that common.  Keeps us all riveted right up until go time, but in that case we need to rely on factors such as climatology, field dynamics and experience in order to project what actually may occur.

Good stuff!

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, tunafish said:

So you've finally come around to a Friday early morning start time?  Welcome.

First flakes around midnight yes 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

First flakes around midnight yes 

Does look that way, speeding up ..

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Does look that way, speeding up ..

We tried to tell, they laughed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Does look that way, speeding up ..

Looks after midnight and more towards the time he wakes up. Remember… his sleep time is 7pm-3am. So yea, it starts Friday for now…unless it keeps escaping east.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks after midnight and more towards the time he wakes up. Remember… his sleep time is 7pm-3am. So yea, it starts Friday for now…unless it keeps escaping east.

Yeah… by this time tomorrow it may not be starting at all

[MJO812]

Worst winter ever