Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[SouthCoastMA]

It looks like a slightly east version of the GFS, based on 500mb..but pretty similar overall?

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

That is a big H7 RH field. Lots of deffy. QPF queens may not like it.

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Hi.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:07 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm not so sure it's as bad as some think.

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another 50 mile+ jog east.. 3-6" for SE New england 1-3" back to the River

[wxsniss]

vs. 0z:

Slightly better digging shortwave... this is not so bad, probably a better hit for eSNE than 0z

[PhineasC]

Slippin' away other than for the coastal regions.

We will see if it comes back by tomorrow.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Battling the weenie low with convection.

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Right. Not quite ready to give the models a complete win on that exact evolution yet. Wouldn't take that much here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its a little better here...the early reads are so dramatic.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:13 PM, JC-CT said:

Right. Not quite ready to give the models a complete win on that exact evolution yet. Wouldn't take that much here.

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It's 3 days out. This place is a Dr Phil experiment.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's 3 days out. This place is a Dr Phil experiment.

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I'd like to think a Dr. Phil experiment would be a little more kinky.

[Allsnow]

It’s well east of 06z 

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:11 PM, PhineasC said:

Slippin' away other than for the coastal regions.

We will see if it comes back by tomorrow.

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0z you should see some changes, But yeah, 12z tomorrow we will have some goalpost setting i think, That's where i have been at.

[Cold Miser]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:11 PM, PhineasC said:

Slippin' away other than for the coastal regions.

We will see if it comes back by tomorrow.

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[Damage In Tolland]

With that look that 6-12” back to ALB

[Winter Wizard]

I don't understand the complaints. That looks like an ideal track for a moderate snowstorm for much of SNE and ENE. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If this trends any later with development/closing off its NBD for most 

sugar coat that however it tickles your ween

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:14 PM, Allsnow said:

It’s well east of 06z 

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Feedback?

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:15 PM, Winter Wizard said:

I don't understand the complaints. That looks like an ideal track for a moderate snowstorm for much of SNE and ENE. 

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Greedy phucks.

[Allsnow]

[mreaves]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:14 PM, Cold Miser said:

 

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Haven’t heard this song in years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know the clown maps are 2-4", but I think it would be a little more than that...like 3-6".

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

With that look that 6-12” back to ALB

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Holy hell how much beer have you consumed? 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

Greedy phucks.

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Lost souls.  

I’m with @dryslot, wake me up tomorrow to start talking deets. 

[dendrite]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:14 PM, dryslot said:

0z you should see some changes, But yeah, 12z tomorrow we will have some goalpost setting i think, That's where i have been at.

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Just gotta curl that vortmax in more like previous runs. It looks like it wants to and then it just keeps pushing east.

This isn't our first rodeo...we know how it goes inside of 72hr. That's why I can't post very seriously in that 3+ day range. If it trends in our favor...great. If not, oh well. There will be others.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:18 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Holy hell how much beer have you consumed? 

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About 40oz of my first call

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's 3 days out. This place is a Dr Phil experiment.

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Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

What everyone is missing is that fact that everything is trending east, so this run verbatim is fine 2-4/4-8 whatever, but the western half of New England doesn't have many more tics left until we end up high and dry.  Obviously the eastern half of New England is much more in the game.  

[CoastalWx]

I will say watch that srn streamer of vorticity. That is what excites a little low with the convection SE of HSE. That is playing a role. But if that main s/w is stronger, it won't matter much.

[eduggs]

Still lots of options on the table. But it seems like the upper ceiling decreases with each model run that doesn't increase the amplitude of the LW trof. Still warning snows potential almost everywhere.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

With that look that 6-12” back to ALB

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Are you thinking 30:1 ratios?

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 6:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

 

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I know lol. But the Flemish Cap.