Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Damage In Tolland]

Thaaaaa Weenies on the bus go round and round , round and round, round and round .. all the f’ing day 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:49 PM, PhineasC said:

I still think a slight jump back west 36-48 out is likely. Just hope it doesn’t get way OTS before it happens. 

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I don't see this as OTS and whiffing most. JMHO. Maybe I'll be wrong with a track near the Cape and ACK..but I don't think it whiffs. 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:48 PM, PhineasC said:

This sounds like one of those fake “congrats DC” posts Jerry used to post in the MA forum. LOL

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lol honestly man, Will shares a shot of his kids outside shoveling 0.35” of snow and it’s like damn, that’s cool.

Theres a lot of folks on the forum who haven’t had snow on the ground, no need to be selfish if they can get one. I’d root for good people.

[MJO812]

Ukie is way east but slightly west from 0z

[powderfreak]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nah PF has realized it ain’t happening for NW NNe and just wants someone to score 

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Yeah exactly. There’s no mind games there. It ain’t happening up north so why not cheer it on for someone.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thaaaaa Weenies on the bus go round and round , round and round, round and round .. all the f’ing day 

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Ya we chase the models like monkeys . What’s your gut call , if you got one .

[PhineasC]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:51 PM, MJO812 said:

Ukie is way east but slightly west from 0z

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How much for the Azores?

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:52 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah exactly. There’s no mind games there. It ain’t happening up north so why not cheer it on for someone.  

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My son was pissed we missed the snow yesterday. Could not believe it because the GFS showed like 2". I showed him a sounding to show why the GFS was wrong.  

[Lava Rock]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don't see this as OTS and whiffing most. JMHO. Maybe I'll be wrong with a track near the Cape and ACK..but I don't think it whiffs. 

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probably the difference between 2-4 vs 8-12" here

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

My son was pissed we missed the snow yesterday. Could not believe it because the GFS showed like 2". I showed him a sounding to show why the GFS was wrong.  

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Was he like "well why cant they just fix it?"

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

I think it's real, but I sort of envision the low developing just offshore and moving north as an elongated low dueling out those features before bombing near the Cape. The GFS track or a bit west of that looks reasonable.

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That's one helluva good analysis....at least based on the 12z models.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we chase the models like monkeys . What’s your gut call , if you got one .

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Ack to Elbow of CC just offshore. Big hit for most all the way back to ALB

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:55 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

That's one helluva good analysis....at least based on the 12z models.

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I may be too far west in my initial thinking. But it just has that look of coming west a bit from these eastward solutions. 

[PhineasC]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

I may be too far west in my initial thinking. But it just has that look of coming west a bit from these eastward solutions. 

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Getting shook by OTS now?   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even that GFS solution would place the best snows around I95 from Taunton to Boston up through the N shore, looking at H7.

Not that bad.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:51 PM, powderfreak said:

lol honestly man, Will shares a shot of his kids outside shoveling 0.35” of snow and it’s like damn, that’s cool.

Theres a lot of folks on the forum who haven’t had snow on the ground, no need to be selfish if they can get one. I’d root for good people.

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I'll gladly give you all my snow.  I have no need or desire for it.  I enjoy tracking them more than the outcome.

[kdxken]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don't see this as OTS and whiffing most. JMHO. Maybe I'll be wrong with a track near the Cape and ACK..but I don't think it whiffs. 

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So there's still a chance for a whiff?

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

I may be too far west in my initial thinking. But it just has that look of coming west a bit from these eastward solutions. 

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[78Blizzard]

I hate to say this, but we ride the latest NAM.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even that GFS solution would place the best snows around I95 from Taunton to Boston up through the N shore, looking at H7.

Not that bad.

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Thou shallst not utter thy word in these chambers for it bringeth much angst to thy members

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:01 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll gladly give you all my snow.  I have no need or desire for it.  I enjoy tracking them more than the outcome.

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WTF? 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:59 PM, PhineasC said:

Getting shook by OTS now?   

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If this goes OTS, I am moving to your beach house. Can't wait for you to see the things I will do, on your Nest Cam.

[powderfreak]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:01 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll gladly give you all my snow.  I have no need or desire for it.  I enjoy tracking them more than the outcome.

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Appreciate the gesture.  You're a good man, ha.  We can't control it anyway.  I just hope someone sees something.  It seems quite selfish to wish it away for everyone if I can't get involved, so you cheer for your friends.

The angle of attack has seemed to change in the past few days.  More easterly motion leaving the coast than north.  Would need to see some adjustments there to go back to deeper interior snows.  Of course there's always the H6-H7 snows are further back than we think too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even that GFS solution would place the best snows around I95 from Taunton to Boston up through the N shore, looking at H7.

Not that bad.

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GEFS illustrate this nicely in the mean.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thaaaaa Weenies on the bus go round and round , round and round, round and round .. all the f’ing day 

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You need to have an intervention with your CT peeps and prevent them from jumping off the Gold Star Bridge.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I'm still thinking this comes back west some...they usually do when you have that nice consolidated vort energy near base of trough and when there's some sfc reflection chasing convection. We actually saw this somewhat in the 12/17/20 storm last winter.

We're obviously dealing with an eastward trend this 12z cycle, but there's still plenty of cycles left.

[dendrite]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We actually saw this somewhat in the 12/17/20 storm last winter.

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I don't remember that storm. How did it end up?

[PhineasC]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

WTF? 

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Like going on Tinder, spending weeks talking to a perfect 10, and then when she knocks on your door you tell her to get lost. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

WTF? 

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It's true.  Snow is nuisance PIA at this stage in my life.  I drive 25k miles a year and I hate winter driving.  Big storms (12"+) are all I care for and they don't occur that frequently. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 5:11 PM, powderfreak said:

Appreciate the gesture.  You're a good man, ha.  We can't control it anyway.  I just hope someone sees something.  It seems quite selfish to wish it away for everyone if I can't get involved, so you cheer for your friends.

The angle of attack has seemed to change in the past few days.  More easterly motion leaving the coast than north.  Would need to see some adjustments there to go back to deeper interior snows.  Of course there's always the H6-H7 snows are further back than we think too.

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Trajectory is always the key up here, A BM north close to eastport in the GOM works, A BM NE to east of the tip of NS does not, That's why i prefer a low tracking over 41/70 if it goes NE from there, In the GOM, Same, Its still a decent hit, You prefer it tracking over PWM though, That would melt most of the whole board here in NE.....lol