Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is not digging as much as 06z was over the plains.

A bit weaker too so that stands to reason.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS may be a little further east it looks like this run.

The departing wave is hanging on stronger/slower which hurts the hgts along the east coast. The trend needs to stop 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is not digging as much as 06z was over the plains.

about 75-100 miles east of 6z at 40N

[dryslot]

Tblizz will be in to tell us how much he loves the look..........lol

[PhineasC]

06z was high water mark here, IMO.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The departing wave is hanging on stronger/slower which hurts the hgts along the east coast. The trend needs to stop 

I have watched this one as it comes thru here tomorrow, It looks to have got a bit stronger and wants to track more west the last couple cycles so its compressing the flow somewhat up here which is sending the next one to track a bit further east on the GFS this run.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Heights were lower along the east coast very early on, not a good sign, we hold out hope til 12z tomorrow like Tip says, but my fears of a whiff (esp WOR) are starting to materialize more.. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.

So Thursday isn’t going to happen?

[Baroclinic Zone]

It ain't gonna suck, that's for sure.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Right now Looks good for mid Atlantic into Se mass. 
 

S shore in the game for CJ action 

 

we know this will bump some way in 12 hours 

[ORH_wxman]

The western crowd had some good storms in the 1990s and early 2000s....they can wait another decade before the worm turns.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Heights were lower along the east coast very early on, not a good sign, we hold out hope til 12z tomorrow like Tip says, but my fears of a whiff (esp WOR) are starting to materialize more.. 

You want that S/W to remain strong as it rounds the base of the trough but it was not as sharp over the central US this run and got a bit further east.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It ain't gonna suck, that's for sure.

Good for me and you - at 72 hours

I expect it to change, but I'd like to lock the latest runs in. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

You want that S/W to remain strong as it rounds the base of the trough but it was not as sharp over the central US this run and got a bit further east.

Yup, otherwise it's chasing the convection.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You want that S/W to remain strong as it rounds the base of the trough but it was not as sharp over the central US this run and got a bit further east.

Key development to follow 

[PhineasC]

GFS is pretty lame outside far SE MA really. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The western crowd had some good storms in the 1990s and early 2000s....they can wait another decade before the worm turns.

Ya and 40” here in 2013 no biggie. 

[JC-CT]

I do see what Tip means though...looks like 0z tonight is a big run.

(I see what he means - don't confuse that with understanding)

[PhineasC]

Also nails the same areas down south again. What a start to January for them. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup, otherwise it's chasing the convection.

You can see the isobar getting a tug east at the surface, You want this s/w as strong as possible as it rounds the base to not follow that offshore some, At 06z it was down to 1000mb at that same date stamp.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Heights were lower along the east coast very early on, not a good sign, we hold out hope til 12z tomorrow like Tip says, but my fears of a whiff (esp WOR) are starting to materialize more.. 

No doubt we are getting grazed. These fast flow late developers never crush us without a big wc ridge.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The departing wave is hanging on stronger/slower which hurts the hgts along the east coast. The trend needs to stop 

Oh god, here we go. Some shit streak shortwave that wasn’t wiped properly is now bleeding through my brand new white jeans. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t mind that look here…. I’m sure most don’t care for it though 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Also nails the same areas down south again. What a start to January for them. 

A ‘Lil LBSW perhaps? 

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No doubt we are getting grazed. These fast flow late developers never crush us without a big wc ridge.

I love frozen mole hills all over my yard.  Smashed knee caps on all of the kids 5 years and younger....14.2⁰ this morning with a stiff wind, just a bit chilly. First time the sun has been out in full since December 27th, a nice change at least. 

I think we are skunked out here, E of the river for this one...

[Hazey]

Wow. Beast mode on all the 12z models so far. Steady as she goes.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Also nails the same areas down south again. What a start to January for them. 

Maybe tee up another commuter nightmare down there?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Hazey said:

Wow. Beast mode on all the 12z models so far. Steady as she goes.


#NovaScotiaStrong

#invadeCanada

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

A ‘Lil LBSW perhaps? 

No. The GFS just grazes...its not LBSW. System still maxes out NE.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Wow. Beast mode on all the 12z models so far. Steady as she goes.


#NovaScotiaStrong

I think many want to see you rain.........lol