Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Fffftt in pants kind of dump?

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The kind that makes you wanna FOLLLOOOOOWWW MEEEEEE

[qg_omega]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would like to be @dryslotfor this one.

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if you like smoking cirrus, good place to be for this one 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

I think it's real, but I sort of envision the low developing just offshore and moving north as an elongated low dueling out those features before bombing near the Cape. The GFS track or a bit west of that looks reasonable.

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That's s/w is strong, so I see no reason why the low won't be more tucked in to it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:16 PM, qg_omega said:

if you like smoking cirrus, good place to be for this one 

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#5TOOMANY

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

I think it's real, but I sort of envision the low developing just offshore and moving north as an elongated low dueling out those features before bombing near the Cape. The GFS track or a bit west of that looks reasonable.

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128 special?

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would like to be @dryslotfor this one.

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Looks good but i want to see today's runs, I was giving it until 0z-12z Weds so tonight or tomorrow 12z, It should be pretty much set with some room up here for the last minute track nuances.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

One can hope it seems 

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[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:19 PM, moneypitmike said:

128 special?

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Maybe, who knows, it's early to get cute. I like the idea of rapid cyclogenesis if it does tuck, as long as it is not over your house like the NAM has lol.

[CoastalWx]

What's the spread on the EPS? I'll sell that far SE.

[PhineasC]

The NAM is gorgeous. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

What's the spread on the EPS? I'll sell that far SE.

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We should start seeing those outliers go bye-bye today.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Let’s goooooooooo weenies!!!!! Timing of this event? We looking at a quick hittin, start to finish, Friday AM deal?

[Baroclinic Zone]

NAM is the western envelope imo.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:24 PM, PhineasC said:

The NAM is gorgeous. 

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Beauty is truly within the eye of the beholder. I’m on the huggy train with this one. Perhaps the march west begins once the split is fully sampled.

[MJO812]

Sref fwiw is slightly east

[CoastalWx]

Will you stop with the GD SREFs?

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Will you stop with the GD SREFs?

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Can we add the NAM?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:26 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM is the western envelope imo.

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LOL Right over me...I'll sell that for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Will you stop with the GD SREFs?

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Beer anger ?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:26 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM is the western envelope imo.

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That's a Berks to Mitch jackpot.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

What's the spread on the EPS? I'll sell that far SE.

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Starting to tighten up a bit though still plenty of spread....you can see that cluster near the BM though.

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Will you stop with the GD SREFs?

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Be prepared for popo knocking on your door later. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL Right over me...I'll sell that for now.

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Yeah, that'd have you jumping off a bridge.  I don't believe it but it's in the realm this far out.

[Damage In Tolland]

They laughed when we said BM days ago. They laugh no more 

[Baroclinic Zone]

A BM track with the antecedent airmass would be great for majority of the forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:33 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, that'd have you jumping off a bridge.  I don't believe it but it's in the realm this far out.

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That would....a rainer following the mid atl MECS and arctic shot would send me into major melt mode....probably one tier down from my record melt of Feb 2010.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

They laughed when we said BM days ago. They laugh no more 

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We laughed because you're awful at geography

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

They laughed when we said BM days ago. They laugh no more 

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Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d favor something just inside the benchmark right now

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.

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laying the burn on