Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

OT but Euro has BOS at 0F. 18Z Tuesday 1/11.   Wow!

 

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Coldest in 3 years.

Grid failure?

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Grid failure?

Apparently an LNG freighter arrived in the last few days, so hopefully not.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Grid failure?

That's the projection.

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Grid failure?

One can hope it seems 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Come with me my sheep, for I am thy shepherd......

Yea, been with you all along. My goal has always been coastal front....deformation is for the chickens.

[JC-CT]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

Of course, might end up being our best friend if it was going to ride up the CRV otherwise.

[dryslot]

[Ginx snewx]

Did Kevin say VA snow melts today? 100s stuck on 1 95 this morning.  That snow isn't going anywhere today.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Did Kevin say VA snow melts today? 100s stuck on 1 95 this morning.  That snow isn't going anywhere today.

Yeah that's nuts. Probably not until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z eps more amped that’s about all to take from it. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just looked at the 00z Euro and the SLP placement is definitely off from where the best forcing is.  Looks like it should be about 50-75mi further W when looking at the 12z Friday panel.  06z GFS looks more like what I feel the Euro should look like.  Now the question becomes, will this rip further W or will the W ridge help dampen that out and the storm rides up just offshore.  Either way, the antecedent airmass looks damn frigid ahead of this storm, so I'd feel pretty good away from the coast for all snow.  Even the coast would start as snow.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

8 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s not funny. I have aspergers and am a serious risk factor for CTE from spending my youth slamming my head against furniture for hours at a time. I have serious psych symptoms and require amphetamine and risperidone just to act like a normal human being. 
 

but I have a savant memory for weather and a lifelong hobby of following it. It was not 6 inches. It was well over a foot. The map even says so.

And who smokes pot. I haven’t smoked in years that sends me straight to paranoid psychosis. 

 

I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hook me up with EPS # 46 from 00z lol

[78Blizzard]

57 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z euro came back west from 00z by about 25 miles, goes a bit east of BM. 

also a good bit stronger than 00z 25 mb drop in 18 hours. 

nice for eastern areas.

also looks to be chasing convection to east like 00z but it’s def a bit west.

 

I still think it's going between ACK and the BM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

I think you 'gon mix.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

The 6z gfs kind of illustrates my point here. Just about everything west of the low is snow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would like to be @dryslotfor this one.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you 'gon mix.

Maybe… but the 6z gfs is pretty tucked and it’s all snow pretty much anyone left of the low 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 6z gfs kind of illustrates my point here. Just about everything west of the low is snow 

Verbatim, the GFS jack pots you with 1'+....but good luck having that be the final outcome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe… but the 6z gfs is pretty tucked and it’s all snow pretty much anyone left of the low 

I guess if it goes 12/9/05.....either way, not like I'm saying you are going to be all rain, but best should be NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

95 should mix / flip over 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you 'gon mix.

What about my area? 

[Go Kart Mozart]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM

To clarify....are you thinking the surface low forms with the convection well off-shore, then moves due north, making landfall in SEMA?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

What about my area? 

I like the Euro idea from the other night....some issues there, but not before a nice dump.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the Euro idea from the other night....some issues there, but not before a nice dump.

Fffftt in pants kind of dump?

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z EPS shifted se a bit...goes from liking my area, to se MA.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

 

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

To clarify....are you thinking the surface low forms with the convection well off-shore, then moves due north, making landfall in SEMA?

I think it's real, but I sort of envision the low developing just offshore and moving north as an elongated low dueling out those features before bombing near the Cape. The GFS track or a bit west of that looks reasonable.

[moneypitmike]

 

45 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If not for Euro chasing this convection it would ride up over SE Mass.. 

If not for his balls, my uncle would be my aunt.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess if it goes 12/9/05.....either way, not like I'm saying you are going to be all rain, but best should be NW.

I'm eagerly awaiting your write-up.