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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

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You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:45 PM, JC-CT said:

You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

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Of course, might end up being our best friend if it was going to ride up the CRV otherwise.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

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Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

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Just looked at the 00z Euro and the SLP placement is definitely off from where the best forcing is.  Looks like it should be about 50-75mi further W when looking at the 12z Friday panel.  06z GFS looks more like what I feel the Euro should look like.  Now the question becomes, will this rip further W or will the W ridge help dampen that out and the storm rides up just offshore.  Either way, the antecedent airmass looks damn frigid ahead of this storm, so I'd feel pretty good away from the coast for all snow.  Even the coast would start as snow.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 4:12 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s not funny. I have aspergers and am a serious risk factor for CTE from spending my youth slamming my head against furniture for hours at a time. I have serious psych symptoms and require amphetamine and risperidone just to act like a normal human being. 
 

but I have a savant memory for weather and a lifelong hobby of following it. It was not 6 inches. It was well over a foot. The map even says so.

And who smokes pot. I haven’t smoked in years that sends me straight to paranoid psychosis. 

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I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html 

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:06 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z euro came back west from 00z by about 25 miles, goes a bit east of BM. 

also a good bit stronger than 00z 25 mb drop in 18 hours. 

nice for eastern areas.

also looks to be chasing convection to east like 00z but it’s def a bit west.

 

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I still think it's going between ACK and the BM.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

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I think you 'gon mix.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the system is strong, even if it crosses the cape somewhere, we should be pretty much okay here no? Seems like the stronger the system, the closer to the low the rain/snow line is 

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The 6z gfs kind of illustrates my point here. Just about everything west of the low is snow 

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:45 PM, JC-CT said:

You think that feature isnt real? Seems like a few times over the last few years we've had some crap out in front tug a system that could have been a monster into a mid range quick hitter with owl eyes.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 1:12 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

To clarify....are you thinking the surface low forms with the convection well off-shore, then moves due north, making landfall in SEMA?

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I think it's real, but I sort of envision the low developing just offshore and moving north as an elongated low dueling out those features before bombing near the Cape. The GFS track or a bit west of that looks reasonable.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If not for Euro chasing this convection it would ride up over SE Mass.. 

D232316C-C495-4E66-8EA4-53D607D27E7C.jpeg

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If not for his balls, my uncle would be my aunt.

  On 1/4/2022 at 1:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess if it goes 12/9/05.....either way, not like I'm saying you are going to be all rain, but best should be NW.

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I'm eagerly awaiting your write-up.

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