Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dendrite]

  On 1/4/2022 at 11:12 AM, MJO812 said:

None of them

All of you worship the euro where it's just an average model.

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Average is a bit harsh although it’s been less impressive lately. I think people just want to hate it. I can remember so many systems in the last 5+ years where the GFS was late to the cyclogenesis party even inside of 24hrs. I mean it was still trying to snow through a bone dry column in SNE yesterday right up until go-time so it still has plenty of physical flaws. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

 

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Tomer is a gfs hugger whatever it shows that run he goes with . Yesterday he was saying it will be a total whiff…

[CoastalWx]

Come with me my sheep, for I am thy shepherd......

[CoastalWx]

The gfs track could happen. Bombogenesis near the Cape. Still think Ptype is the issue for me, but that would work even here. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z euro came back west from 00z by about 25 miles, goes a bit east of BM. 

also a good bit stronger than 00z 25 mb drop in 18 hours. 

nice for eastern areas.

also looks to be chasing convection to east like 00z but it’s def a bit west.

 

[Torch Tiger]

Let's go, hopefully goes north of BOS with sfc low track.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:54 AM, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get it to blow up and everyone happy.

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YES SIR

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:06 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z euro cane back west from 00z by about 25 miles 

also a good bit stronger than 00z 

nice for eastern areas.

also looks to be chasing convection to east like 00z but it’s def a bit west 

 

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Yep more amped

[MJO812]

[JC-CT]

Is it sampling the split yet

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:16 PM, JC-CT said:

Is it sampling the split yet

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No

[CoastalWx]

Euro will come west in the end. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 10:49 AM, dendrite said:

I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. 

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The days of the euro king in the 2-4 day range definitely have not occurred. I’m sure gfs will still have its issues, but the days of euro yore are gone for the time being. Still weigh EPS more than GEFS.

[512high]

Scott , maybe not the thread for this....you still like Jan. 10-11 range for next to follow?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Shouldn’t we be dumping ensembles pretty soon?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Shouldn’t we be dumping ensembles pretty soon?

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Wut

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Shouldn’t we be dumping ensembles pretty soon?

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No 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

The days of the euro king in the 2-4 day range definitely have not occurred. I’m sure gfs will still have its issues, but the days of euro yore are gone for the time being. Still weigh EPS more than GEFS.

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Yes I agree, euro has been absolutely dreadful in a few storms this year.  GFS was late to the party on this one so nod to euro on that.  Let’s see which is more consistent in the lead up to the storm.  They are about equal now in my eyes.  

[JC-CT]

Cmc gets no respect. Good.

[MJO812]

Can we to back to the euro from the early 2000s?

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:26 PM, JC-CT said:

Cmc gets no respect. Good.

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Cmc just had a big upgrade last year

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Shouldn’t we be dumping ensembles pretty soon?

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Usually 24-36 hours yes but we still have about 6 runs to get there. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:26 PM, MJO812 said:

Cmc just had a big upgrade last year

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If this comes to fruition, def mark it as a mid range win for the canadians.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If not for Euro chasing this convection it would ride up over SE Mass.. 

[ineedsnow]

12z should be fun to watch come out today.. first good threat for us of the year! 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, 512high said:

Scott , maybe not the thread for this....you still like Jan. 10-11 range for next to follow?

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Yeah, but don’t expect 14-15 to happen. We’ll have a window for some snow chances and colder weather. Some signs a more Nina look happens later in the month with maybe a drop in the PNA, but most guidance maintains a decent ridge in the EPAC.

That’s about all I can say. Can’t say if it’s a snowy period or not. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If not for Euro chasing this convection it would ride up over SE Mass.. 

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Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 11:58 AM, CoastalWx said:

Come with me my sheep, for I am thy shepherd......

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Yee could have snow up to thy knickers.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 12:26 PM, MJO812 said:

Cmc just had a big upgrade downgrade last year

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You mean it went from bad to worse?