Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[wxsniss]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I still think this will make us flirt with taint by the time the track is settled.  At least we'll have snow cover for a few days (hopefully)

Agree

Frankly, any slightly outside BM tracks today make me more comfortable for our area

Not wavering from my thoughts over the weekend, and still heavily weighing EPS: synoptically this is more likely to trend northwest than OTS as we get closer, especially if this shortwave is undersampled

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree

Frankly, any slightly outside BM tracks today make me more comfortable for our area

Not wavering from my thoughts over the weekend, and still heavily weighing EPS: synoptically this is more likely to trend northwest than OTS as we get closer, especially if this shortwave is undersampled

Total agreement.

[weathafella]

OT but Euro has BOS at 0F. 18Z Tuesday 1/11.   Wow!

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

OT but Euro has BOS at 0F. 18Z Tuesday 1/11.   Wow!

Coldest in 3 years.

[8611Blizz]

[wxsniss]

EPS 0z:

 

12z:

[weathafella]

29 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

EPS 0z:

 

12z:

Still a big group of huggers there.  The mean is being skewed east by the 6 of 51 that are >500 miles out.  Kind of validates  to me the idea that the likely track is near or over the Cape/Islands or SE MA.

[NeonPeon]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Still a big group of huggers there.  The mean is being skewed east by the 6 of 51 that are >500 miles out.  Kind of validates  to me the idea that the likely track is near or over the Cape/Islands or SE MA.

Gross.

[greenmtnwx]

Very ugly Euro run

[The 4 Seasons]

BOX and OKX have maps out but i noticed they only go through 7AM Friday. 

BOX morning AFD, seems reasonable to me 

The highlight of the extended forecast is the growing potential for
a Nor`Easter capable of producing widespread substantial snowfall for
southern New England. A broad upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the eastern US on Thursday supporting the development of a
surface low-pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast. This coastal
low will track northeastward toward southern New England Thursday
night into Friday bringing the potential for significant snowfall.
There is still considerable uncertainty with respect to the track of
this storm, thus there is also uncertainty in which areas will see
snow (or potentially rain) and how much snow will accumulate. At
this point in time, it appears that a major blockbuster winter storm
will be unfavorable due to a lack of downstream blocking. Downstream
blocking would support a slower moving storm capable of producing
snowfall for a longer period of time resulting in higher
accumulations. Despite the lack of downstream blocking, the
potential for a respectable and impactful winter storm certainly
remains on the table.

At 96 hours out our best forecast tools lay within ensemble model
guidance. There is strong agreement among the global model ensembles
that the surface low will pass very close to the 70/40 bench mark.
In this scenario most of southern New England would see accumulating
snowfall. Ensemble mean 24 hour snowfall amounts from each of the
GFS/CMC/EC models fall in the 3-6" range in the Thursday night -
Friday night time period. The consensus for the "bulls eye" of
highest accumulations is over the I-95 corridor. The GFS ensemble
resolves a track a bit further north and west placing the heaviest
snowfall over western MA and southern NH. The relatively strong
agreement among global ensemble guidance right now suggests an
increasing likelihood for at least an advisory level snowfall event
for portions of southern New England and perhaps even a warning
level event. Again, considerable uncertainty remains so we`ll
continue to monitor the latest trends as the event draws nearer.

 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Very ugly Euro run

Gfs disagrees and it did well with last system

[The 4 Seasons]

Best run of the GFS yet. 

[moneypitmike]

06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston.  Ugly track for most on the board.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston.  Ugly track for most on the board.

 

unless you're freebasing, you shouldn't be looking at the 75-84HR NAM

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

unless you're freebasing, you shouldn't be looking at the 75-84HR NAM

I'm reporting what it shows, not forecasting. 

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z GFS Clown and QPF

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston.  Ugly track for most on the board.

 

Flow is too fast for such an inland track. Still think a whiff is more likely than cutter.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm reporting what it shows, not forecasting. 

Same. Just bein funny. And it's a PSA to anyone who might be using it forecasting

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just waking up,  my god, what a crushing on the GFS. All downhill.

[George001]

The gfs is such a terrible model, it moved like 500 miles NW with the low in 2 cycles less than 100 hours out. The European and Canadian guidance have shifted some but they always were farther west, ranging from between over se mass to just inside the benchmark. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs is such a terrible model, it moved like 500 miles NW with the low in 2 cycles less than 100 hours out. The European and Canadian guidance have shifted some but they always were farther west, ranging from between over se mass to just inside the benchmark. 

Euro did trash with the last storm

[MJO812]

Rgem shifted west

[dendrite]

I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. 

Well it's certainly not the euro

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well it's certainly not the euro

Whats the best model now then?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whats the best model now then?

None of them

All of you worship the euro where it's just an average model.

[MJO812]

Gefs looks good

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs looks good

If things are looking like this at 12z, we might see watches as early as this evening

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

None of them

 

I hate to agree with this, but I do. The ensembles are where it's at ...the OP runs are like throwing drunken darts