Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

Great look to the mid levels, but boy that GFS is flying. In and out of BOS in less than 12 hours.

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp …just saw the NAM

Y’all undersold that. The extrapolation off that end frame would approach the upper physical bound. 

[dryslot]

The speed will limit totals.

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:17 AM, dryslot said:

The speed will limit totals.

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anything over 3 and ill be happy

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:17 AM, dryslot said:

The speed will limit totals.

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We hear this all the time…but if you get a few hellacious bands that set up, it will do the job just fine. 

[Torch Tiger]

looks like ggem...nbd, next

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:18 AM, WinterWolf said:

We hear this all the time…but if you get a few hellacious bands that set up, it will do the job just fine. 

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Good luck

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh … first we capitulate, future cycles begin to slow down - maybe not a lot but at least a little. 

Looking at the NAM …. I’m noticing better ridge response over western North America after the S/W ejection east of the Rockies. That’s always been a crucial sensitivity in this whole thing …driving the translation speed of the trough exit off the east coast is anchored in that ridge amplitude

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:19 AM, dryslot said:

Good luck

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You too pal. I think you know what I mean though. Ray pretty much said the same thing the other day. 

[weathafella]

Someone caved tonight 

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:21 AM, WinterWolf said:

You too pal. I think you know what I mean though. Ray pretty much said the same thing the other day. 

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He did, But that's not necessarily correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:06 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Toss any GFS qpf maps. Look at inflow and 700 VVs. Classic 

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Yea, just look at the mid levels.

People sweating a whiff will feel silly.

[MJO812]

[eduggs]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:16 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp …just saw the NAM

Y’all undersold that. The extrapolation off that end frame would approach the upper physical bound. 

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If you overlay the 500mb vorticity chart of the NAM at 84hrs with the GFS at 80hrs, they look pretty similar considering the lead time. The NAM is maybe a touch sharper and there's more ridging both up- and downstream. But still very similar. So the GFS should be a reasonable estimation of what the NAM run might have led to. In this case, a deep and powerful storm in the Maritimes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:15 AM, OceanStWx said:

Great look to the mid levels, but boy that GFS is flying. In and out of BOS in less than 12 hours.

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All you need is 12 hours if the dynamics are there...if they aren't,  who needs a extra 12 hours of snow grains.

[Ginx snewx]

Arctic hounds unleashed next week 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeeeah … that GFS looks like a transition solution to me. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:23 AM, dryslot said:

He did, But that's not necessarily correct.

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But neither is the other philosophy either. Sure if it was crawling it’d be even worse. But we’ve had plenty of very major events with systems that have been really moving along too of late. So that’s where I’m coming from. 
 

Still lots to nail down with this anyway…I don’t want to jump to soon just yet. I’m Just liking the trends at 0z so far for most of us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:21 AM, WinterWolf said:

You too pal. I think you know what I mean though. Ray pretty much said the same thing the other day. 

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Said what?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:28 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeah … that GFS looks like a transition solution to me. 

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Considering it was over Antigua last run, probably lol

[PhineasC]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:24 AM, MJO812 said:

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Big west move.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:15 AM, OceanStWx said:

Great look to the mid levels, but boy that GFS is flying. In and out of BOS in less than 12 hours.

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Hasn't that been a given with this one from the get go?  Anything over 2" here is a win as that will be my biggest snow fall of the season so far.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:28 AM, WinterWolf said:

But neither is the other philosophy either. Sure if it was crawling it’d be even worse. But we’ve had plenty of very major events with systems that have been really moving along too of late. So that’s where I’m coming from. 
 

Still lots to nail down with this anyway…I don’t want to jump to soon just yet. I’m Just liking the trends at 0z so far for most of us. 

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If you get 3-6 hrs of good rate you did well, The other 3-6 would be light snows, Slow this down where you get bands overhead for a 6-9 hr period then yeah.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All you need is 12 hours if the dynamics are there...if they aren't,  who needs a extra 12 hours of snow grains.

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Absolutely. GFS bias is more progressive anyway. 

But I can already see the sparkle in the weenies' eyes of 2 ft in 9 hours or something like that.

[IowaStorm05]

Of note…. Canadian showing a plastering of places like northern TN, KY, places that just got hounded. Really shaping up a big deal for those guys down there 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:27 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Arctic hounds unleashed next week 

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I'm ready, it would be nice to walk, ski or skate across a pond this winter.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:31 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hasn't that been a given with this one from the get go?  Anything over 2" here is a win as that will be my biggest snow fall of the season so far.

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That aspect of the pattern is a limiting factor for sure. But if you can get a real dynamic deepening in our backyard it will want to cut across thickness lines and every hour counts.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian a bit east and more subdued 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:31 AM, dryslot said:

If you get 3-6 hrs of good rate you did well, The other 3-6 would be light snows, Slow this down where you get bands overhead for a 6-9 hr period then yeah.

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If you can't get heavy totals from a 12 hours event, then the storm either sucked, and/or didn't take a favorable track. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2022 at 4:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Said what?

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  On 1/4/2022 at 4:18 AM, WinterWolf said:

We hear this all the time…but if you get a few hellacious bands that set up, it will do the job just fine. 

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