Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe I’m a weenie but that looks like snow here 

It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas. 

Next step:

“Looks like the Cape still gets a couple inches.”

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe I’m a weenie but that looks like snow here 

You’re fine there. 

[Lava Rock]

Wake me up Thurs when this is more of a lock...or not

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

East of River special coming you can feel it. 

[Ginx snewx]

18Z coming in hot with 1 to 2 per hour snows. Nice

[dryslot]

Extrapolates unite.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lean back . Do tha Rockaway

Drunk?

[Ginx snewx]

That's a BM special 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Next step:

“Looks like the Cape still gets a couple inches.”

I’m not really that worried about a whiff on this. It has that look of ripping some good bands pretty far west…it’s always possible it gets more sheared as we get closer but usually when you see the energy consolidated at the base of the trough like that, it doesn’t trend sheared/flat

 

 

 

[JC-CT]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Two competing things I see. Low pressure feeling tugged by the strong S/W and the baroclinic zone off of Hatteras. It’s a matter of which is dominant. 

I take it we can guess which one you think it is

[Ginx snewx]

Nice inside 5 days now

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's a BM special 

That looks inside the benchmark, no?

[dendrite]

Not much in the way of confluence to the NE either.

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

That looks inside the benchmark, no?

Yes, That's inside.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yes, That's inside.

18Z stops the bleeding.  Confidence growing.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not really that worried about a whiff on this. It has that look of ripping some good bands pretty far west…it’s always possible it gets more sheared as we get closer but usually when you see the energy consolidated at the base of the trough like that, it doesn’t trend sheared/flat

 

 

 

Always gonna have the ML 20/30:1 ratios well north and west of low.

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

18Z stops the bleeding.  Confidence growing.

Another frame and that looks like it would cross 41/70.

[moneypitmike]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas. 

Most are more concerned with what happens along 495.

[Baroclinic Zone]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Two competing things I see. Low pressure feeling tugged by the strong S/W and the baroclinic zone off of Hatteras. It’s a matter of which is dominant. 

You rang?

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

18Z stops the bleeding.  Confidence growing.

Until 0z:

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another frame and that looks like it would cross 41/70.

a very good spot for a Berks to Dendrite to Jeff deformation band.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice inside 5 days now

Ya inside day 4 now start time is 81 hours for 00z guidance 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Until 0z:

Hang in there brother.  Its comin...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The stronger versions we’ve seen of this storm are pretty intense. It’s moving fast but you’d easily see widespread 12+ with some of those looks

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I take it we can guess which one you think it is

Let’s get it to blow up and everyone happy.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya inside day 4 now start time is 81 hours for 00z guidance 

Anything can happen obviously, I mean look at the Mid Atlantic today, but this has been modelled for at least 4 days with very little significant wavering.  Tip's post at the beginning was a good one about why there will be a storm.  WPC has had this as a day 7, then day 6, then day 5, now day 4 event for most of New England.  This is probably happening, details tbd, more risk of going inside the coastline than OTS because nothing to push it out.  It is a good set up for the interior zones in particular.

[dryslot]

18z EPS looks like it would be east of 12z.

[IowaStorm05]

Seems like Willimantic is a pretty good spot for this one. Maybe a risk of some sleet mixing in late.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Drunk?

You should give rap a chance